Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER


Edited: 09/18/2019 at 05:02 AM by Central Floridave

Such a deal. We might get more wind out of this one than Dorian. NHC

It should go offshore about the 12th of never

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ

Tropical Tidbits, Greensleeves' link. Nice discussion.

Most of the 6z model runs (UK and ECMWF) keep it off the east coast. NHC 5AM update reflects this but their forecast is still to the left of the model consensus. Intensity forecasts are ticking up with the possible track staying over water.

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Offshore winds possible Sunday/Monday. You guys don't follow directions very well.

SUNDAY
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 40
to 45 knots with gusts to around 60 knots diminishing to 15 to 20
knots in the afternoon. Seas 12 feet subsiding to 6 feet in the
afternoon. Extremely rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms.


MONDAY
West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A moderate
chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

12Z run of models (except for GFS) remind me of Dennis 1999.

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NHC 15Z forecast update reflects the 12Z model runs. Looks favorable so far.

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Friday nhc 11 o'clock update shows recurve and heading to Bermuda. Potential Cat 1 in 96 hours. Bring surf and offshore winds please. We need it.

Surfer. More like guidelines than actual rules...

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

the 12th of never. I hate that its true.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

me too johnny boy but we remain ever optimistic since we are florida "surfers"

should we wax up our big sticks so we can explore the green room?




fool us once - shame on you

fool us twice - hey we are florida surfers



Edited: 09/13/2019 at 10:32 AM by Greensleeves

8 pm Friday forecast path is even farther offshore and north of the Bahamas. We're at the edge of the cone of uncertainty; tropical storm watch still in effect.

As of Saturday morning, things are beginning to look very interesting.

NWS showing due west wind all day SUNDAY and half the day on monday. Get on it tomorrow boys and girls!!!

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if i went by what the nws said i'd probably never surf.

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sneedeker

Wed maybe noc so up in our grill ffs poles?

Why wait for offshores??? fun/challenging at some locations, Nice to surf with ya again Daner!!!....Pic of some local air droping into oblivion..great air drops today..

It was kinda thick out there...Icing the back now for round two later...

Edited: 09/14/2019 at 09:17 AM by SurferMic

Grievous

Well it was a washing machine out there but but some fun ones. Good seeing you surferMic.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

What's the call for this week? Best day?

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Uga Uga!!!

Wunderground has the best handle on the local wind forecast atm. NWS MLB is leaning too heavily on GFS model output and it has been completely useless of late.

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Wunder has it north at twenty for a big part of the day.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/...casts/FZUS52.KMLB.html

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I was right.

Edited: 09/14/2019 at 07:05 PM by Cole

Not yet (following directions)

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

S CB streets : Eyeball viz: 8am

Wind is light to calm, swell is somewhere around 3-5 . Some wobble, crinkle. Heading for a 915 high tide, funky scoured out bottom. Gotta look around.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

waves suck

There are waves but its not perfect. Head to slightly overhead. N winds got on it around 9 and ruining the form.

Thanks for the reports. I'm looking to surf this Sunday afternoon and HOPEFULLY the wind slows down and grooms it better.

^ Still looking very windy sloppy- at least up here north of cape Volusia area - hopefully early tommorow will at least be lighter? DP to start workweek

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 09/15/2019 at 10:54 AM by surferclimber

The wind is forecast to be more favorable for Monday DP.

i think i may have to make an appearance...

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sneedeker

Anyone know anything about kite surfing?

yea its for rich people who can't surf.

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sneedeker

or perhaps for people that currently live were there is plenty of water and wind .... but shiznit for actual "surf" 98.765% of the time.




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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

as someone who grew up where the surf is actually terrible for around that percentage annually, was landlocked for the better part of 6 years, and now lives in an even more infrequent surfing locale than where i grew up, i will tell you that some of y'all are serious whiners and would do everyone a favor if you quit surfing/complaining. also: don't forget that two weeks ago a place only a few hundred miles away got completely decimated. take no day for granted let alone the beauty of living in paradise and having the ability to surf something within an hour hour and a half drive max if you actually cared about surfing.

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sneedeker

Edited: 09/15/2019 at 12:54 PM by harrietdubman

Agreed. Everyone complains when it's flat and once there's something to ride, people still have something to say. "It's too crowded" "Hate how it's not offshore" "Hate how it's not low tide" Making comments about certain conditions is one thing, but people flat out complain too much. Surfing would be in a much better place if all the people not having fun in the lineup just quit and picked up something else instead

F-ing sanctimonious much??

- You were the one that posted the whiny, bitchy, judgmental BS about kite surfing being "for rich people who can't surf" My post was to point out that their can be and are other reasons that someone might want to look for an alternative to "surfing" where the conditions are not favorable the vast part of the time.

I am not sure exactly what your f-ing problem is with me but you have know idea where I live, how much I have traveled to find surf ( when you actually had to search and not follow the internet informed hoards) or how much I have given back to the surfing / beach communities through 4 f-ing decades of volunteer work. As for the Bahamas ( a place I have been to in the neighborhood of 200 times to surf and dive) .... I helped 3 different groups in my area gather and send badly needed supplies and will do so several more times in the near future.

So take your judgemental BS and stick in your uninformed ass.



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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

Edited: 09/15/2019 at 08:54 PM by LBLarry

butthurt man makes butt reference ^. p.s. west winds...

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sneedeker

Tool can't defend his clueless BS .... bye tool.




-------------------------
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

Yup. Monday dp. Pafb W 12

Humberto is now a hurricane and if you believe the swell models and virtual buoys looks like it will get bigger thru the week...But, with mostly onshore winds. Unless of course, that is wrong.

The hurricane looks to kick back swell all week. Woot...but, just let me know when the winds turn offshore!

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
1109 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON


THIS AFTERNOON
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet
with a dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal
waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

TONIGHT
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a
dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Isolated showers in the evening.

TUESDAY
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a
dominant period 11 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.

TUESDAY NIGHT
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. A
light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.

WEDNESDAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to
20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Choppy on the
intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to
11 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

THURSDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet.
Chance of showers.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to
11 feet. Chance of showers.

FRIDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Slight
chance of showers.

Wind was offshore Tuesday morning, but chances of offshore winds in the morning decrease into Tomorrow. From NWS melbourne

Wed-Sat...Sfc high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard
Wed and push a frontal boundary south across the area. NE winds
will start out 10-15 knots early Wed but conditions will
deteriorate by aftn as a tightening pressure gradient produces a
fresh NE flow through late week. Wind speeds of 20 knots with
occasional 20-25 knots offshore are expected Wed night through Fri
with wind direction veering from NE Wed to East on Friday. Even
as "Humberto" continues to move away from the area, large long
period swells generated by the hurricane will propagate into the
coastal waters and surf zone. Combination of wind wave and swell
will produce seas 10-12 feet over the open Atlc/Gulf Stream and
7-9 feet nearshore. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
through at least Saturday and a High Surf Advisory will likely be
needed for the entire EC FL coast beginning Wed night or Thu.

It was magic before the winds turned. That was about 11am in Palm Beach County.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). The eye of Hurricane Humberto passed over NOAA buoy
around 500 AM AST (0900 UTC). The buoy measured a sustained wind of
76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust to 90 mph (145 km/h) at 4-meters
elevation, and also reported a pressure of 954.2 mb (28.18 inches)
during the eye passage.

Victory At Sea next several days. wind models show strong onshore winds thru at least Monday. Chop Hop surfing.

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
404 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON


TODAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a
dominant period 12 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal
waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of
showers in the afternoon.


THURSDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to
25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Rough on the
intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.

FRIDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Choppy on
the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Slight
chance of showers.

SUNDAY
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.

Gulp. 120 mile buoy reading 16 feet 14 seconds.

It is blown out basura. Its good exercise.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Hopefully this onshore wind crap dies out by the time we start seeing a swell from Jerry.

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
419 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING


TODAY
East winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 20 knots in the
late morning and afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 feet with a dominant
period 13 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of
showers.

TONIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet with a
dominant period 13 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with a
dominant period 13 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet.
Choppy on the intracoastal waters.

SUNDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Choppy on
the intracoastal waters.

SUNDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet.

MONDAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.

MONDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.

TUESDAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

It's going to be close- unfortunately.



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

^^^^Hey Daner ..no show at the spot tonight???.was fair/good, thumping rinse repeat ...



Edited: 09/21/2019 at 04:26 AM by SurferMic

Too windy for me. But glad you had fun.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Windy mess this morning, swell has shrunk.