Yeah for Weather!

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong to Severe Storms Tonight into Early Saturday...

...Damaging Wind Gusts with Heavy Rains and a Few Tornadoes
Possible...

Today-Tonight...Weather conditions will degrade during late
afternoon into tonight as an area of low pressure approaching from
the central Gulf of Mexico nears the area. After a start with
pleasantly cooler morning temperatures, daytime heating coupled with
an increasingly moist environment will lead to the development of
scattered afternoon showers and a few storms. Affected areas will
see briefly heavy rains, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, and occasional
lightning in stronger storms from mid-late afternoon. Most favored
areas are from the Space Coast and Osceola County south to Lake
Okeechobee, where a warm front lifts northward from S FL. expect
highs in the U70s North to M80s South.

The developing Gulf of Mexico low pressure center will approach the
region tonight. Its important to stress regardless of any tropical
development of the feature as it crosses the northeastern gulf,
rapidly increasing winds locally through the atmosphere will promote
a few strong to possibly severe storms. Rapidly moving storms will
be capable of damaging wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph, along with a
few tornadoes within a highly sheared wind environment, primarily
from late tonight and into early Saturday morning. The chance of
wetting rains and strong to possibly severe storms will increased
markedly overnight after around 10 PM. Persons retiring for the
night should ensure they have a method to receive severe weather
alerts for their area through wireless device, and or NOAA weather
radio.


This Weekend...The GOMEX surface cyclone will move onshore the FL
panhandle Sat morning, lift NE rapidly up through the SE CONUS into
NC by sunrise Sun, then offshore the mid ATLC coast in the afternoon.
Strong mid-upper forcing continues through mid day before pulling NE
of the area late in the day. 0-1KM helicity values which start off
around 100-150M2/S2 late tonight through early Sat morning will peak
at 150-250M2/S2 from Brevard/Osceola Cos north during the afternoon.
This supports a threat for rotating storms/tornadoes throughout much
of the day, particularly across the north half CWA. POPs were kept at
categorical (80-90) north and central to likely (70) south, through
overall precip coverage will be decreasing during the afternoon as
the low/occluded front and its parent forcing pull well away from
the state.

Some lingering showers possible, mainly in the evening as some mid
level vort spokes rotate across the region. Isolated to scattered
diurnally forced showers may redevelop Sun, mainly early, before
activity wanes as drier air filters into the region. Temps L-M80s/
L-M70s on Sat, and M-U80s/U60s-L70s for Sun.

Monday-Thursday...An amplifying mid-upper trough will move east from
the central CONUS Mon-Tue through the eastern CONUS through mid
week, temporarily flattening the SE CONUS ridge, before it rebuilds
into late week. Weak surface high pressure which settles in behind
the departing weekend low weakens and shifts east ahead of a cold
front, which sags through ECFL Tue night. North of the front, high
pressure ridge will build from the SE CONUS eastward into the
western ATLC. Brief northerly post frontal wind surge will push a
short lived pool of drier/cooler air across the region through Wed
before winds veer quickly to NE late Wednesday and ENE-E Thursday.

Lingering shower/storm chances Mon-Tue, then drying out starting
Wed, with a small marine shower threat for the far south through
Thu night. Above normal temps through Tue ahead of the cool front,
followed by cooler (near normal) maxes Wed-Thu, but mins remaining
near to above normal, especially along the coast, as winds quickly
veer onshore.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast through early afternoon with some
clouds near FL 030 this morning. SCT showers with a few storms will
develop primarily from near VRB-FPR-SUA by midday and then to
northern sites of ISM-MCO-LEE this aftn into evening. Showers and
brief storms may bring brief MVFR-IFR cigs NR FL020-030 along with 2-
3SM in shra with sfc wnd gusts NR 30-35kt into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Today-Tonight...Onshore winds early around 10 kt will veer to Sly/Se
while increasing in speed by tonight. Increased winds will require
an advisory mainly for winds over the waters N of Sebastian Inlet
after 10 PM tonight, with caution likely over the Treasure Coast.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish overnight, reaching 6 to 7
ft over the advisory area by early Saturday morning, with showers
and squalls adding to the inclement conditions.

Saturday-Tuesday...SCA conditions look certain for the northern and
central waters through Sat-Sat night, but a little less so to the
south of SIPF1. There appears to be a brief 12-hour window Sat from
sunrise-sunset where gusts to gale force occur, but not entirely
sure if the magnitude or frequency will be sufficient to warrant a
Gale Warning. Will defer to day shift to make that call.

Winds/seas quickly subside Sun as stout SW-W flow rapidly slackens
behind the departing surface low. Winds and seas briefly increase
again Tue ahead of the next FROPA, followed by quick wind shift and
surge out of the N-NE late Tue night, which may warrant Cautionary
headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 72 83 73 / 40 90 90 40
MCO 80 70 84 72 / 50 80 80 30
MLB 81 75 85 75 / 50 80 80 30
VRB 83 74 84 75 / 60 80 70 30
LEE 78 68 84 72 / 50 90 80 30
SFB 78 69 84 72 / 50 80 80 30
ORL 79 69 84 73 / 50 80 80 30
FPR 84 75 85 75 / 60 70 70 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Cristaldi
AVIATION...Pendergrast