yep... each update has a bit of an uptick.... I have the morning off friday, so fingers crossed

NHC 5pm update, now saying from 60 to 80mph in long range! Cat 1 possible...

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding
features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side
of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in
radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well
established to the north and east of the center. The center itself
is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection,
but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The
initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak
classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded
outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and
this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster
pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or
negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This
change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding,
which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight.
However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup
over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely
temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this
shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm
SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative
influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear
is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental
factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm,
strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the
previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH


Edited: 08/17/2021 at 02:42 PM by Central Floridave

friday looking fun...