Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the
tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been
moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the
ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season.
Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a
late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt
to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those
data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both
satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30
kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is
starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and
eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been
advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance
now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the
exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue
to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on
day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track
slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This
track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all
forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for
the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the
cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20
kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF
model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this
scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of
shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season,
the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high
intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a
blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and
then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the
HWRF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 08:03 AM by Central Floridave

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the
tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been
moving southward

That should mean swell from a good direction, as for the winds?

-------------------------
I was right.

So, far models keep it weak. But, NHC saying possible 65mph. Virtual buoys show nothing so far. Of course with a weak storm the majority of the wind is not pointed at Central Florida. Moving towards us of course helps, but need the NE wind fetch in the top NW quadrant of the storm to generate swell to us. Keep an eye. Hope NHC is correct in strengthening, but models keep it weak on Monday model runs.

So far this year the past storms long range forecast have been off. Look at Grace for an example. Also, the long range models on earlier storms were off. As usual.

Yeah, that's the issue with these things.... Usually only get significant surf when they're to our SE as the windfield is usually asymetric and fairly small. But moving SW slowly can't hurt. I Hope it's either pumping or totally flat so I can go fish

a 35mph storm moving s/w is better than a 75mph storm moving n/e.

100%..... so we'll see what Oh Henri has in store for us.. but rt now the seas are bigger here than off Bermuda

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center
of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC.
Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical
storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a
35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes
the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This
is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020,
2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the
season.

Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected
by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the
surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly
conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance
supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly
upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system,
which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the
small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the
increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below.
The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in
shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly
below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri
is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours
around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the
western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as
the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and
after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of
the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward.
The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during
the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in
the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near
the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion
to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south
of Bermuda through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep
convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is
located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing
northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have
been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data,
the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is
located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and
this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island.

The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected,
and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of
Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a
slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a
cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast
U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous
one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to
subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain
strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate
northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96
hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some
weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level
moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear.
Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h
period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen
again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some
strengthening is possible then.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

fyi, the virtual buoys haven't really shown any swell from Henri for Central Florida. Pains me to think we won't get anything. I imagine Hatteras will, maybe the virtual buoys wrong and we will. Or, the models just haven't got accurate data yet. I guess we gotta wait-and-see on the real buoys if we do. I guess most of the wind isn't pointed at us, but with the storm moving towards us currently you would think we would.

May have to do some old school voodoo magic to get a swell out of Henri. Or Travel North.

forecast models all showing fetch/ energy on ENE side of the storm pointing away from us (pretty common with these small storms)..... hopefully they're wrong. We should get a small something friday, but looks like this is a time for the OBX and LI....

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 08:56 AM by Plan B

I suppose this isnt accurate

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 09:19 AM by RiddleMe

That's whats been giving me hope.... maybe the small diameter is the issue

Tuesday afternoon model runs do now show a small ground swell for Friday. Didn't in the morning model runs. Hopefully, it gets a little bigger than forecasted!

yep... each update has a bit of an uptick.... I have the morning off friday, so fingers crossed

NHC 5pm update, now saying from 60 to 80mph in long range! Cat 1 possible...

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding
features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side
of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in
radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well
established to the north and east of the center. The center itself
is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection,
but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The
initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak
classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded
outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and
this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster
pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or
negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This
change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding,
which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight.
However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup
over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely
temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this
shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm
SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative
influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear
is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental
factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm,
strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the
previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH


Edited: 08/17/2021 at 02:42 PM by Central Floridave

friday looking fun...

I can only imagine those virtual buoy readings go up on the next day's model runs! That's what we do now, not predict the surf, predict when the models are going to predict the surf.

It is double secret since it is on the internet but if you aren't watching for Friday and Saturday morning you are a nincompoop. Mrs. Scombrid wants to take our dogs to the NSI dogs beach on Saturday AM. I pulled my kitchen pass yesterday. I hope it wasn't too soon and I didn't jinx it. I may be wrong. But I doubt it.

-------------------------
...

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 05:58 PM by scombrid

18zulu model runs made a major change! Check the forecast now!

3' ,, yay ;^)

-------------------------
ola ~

It's got the same characteristics as Kyle did.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

00Z model runs (Wed morning) still doesn't make this a major swell maker. hmm...Strange.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this
morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest
of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still
appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar
presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16
BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain
steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for
further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear
continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core
convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is
expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical
SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear
component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear
should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis
off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further
intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow
becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model
and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high
amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast
of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36
hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change
in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the
northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion
of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global
and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left
of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

Appears we should get some type of a swell from Henri.

Check the buoys off Bermuda..... not exactly rocking. Small fetch will need the intensity to really ramp up to compensate, which it should soon. I'm not expecting much, but I'll be happy with punchy chest high clean swell for now, hopefully it defies the odds..... wish the tides were reversed.

If GFS forecast holds = EURO=

2-4' @ 11-12 seconds Friday afternoon per GFS wave model

& bigger n of the cape It's ON

The internet told me to be hopeful. The internet told me to forget about it. Open your eyes, figure it out for yourself.

... EVERYONE.... 2nd Light will be the BEST spot on the East Coast for this one. GO THERE AND SCORE!

I will go!!!! Then I will decide about the internet.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

I literally walk across the street half dozen times a day to look at the actual wave I'm going to surf . I still spend hours a day on the net looking at predictions and cams. Stop worrying about what I do. If everyone stopped telling peeps what to do on social media Maybe folks wouldn't b so angry when they get in the water w actual surf. LOL ... and if me telling u to stop telling me what to do is part of the problem then ur hopeless.

Does anyone think the positioning of Henri in any way resembles Kyle?

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Wavemaker, yeah

I love that track, felt like we haven't had one of these in a while

That's the 2nd person to use Kyle's name in vain....

ASCAT finally made a pass in the region.... you can see the windfield is pretty small (tiny compared to Grace) so moving west to 72+ will greatly increase size potential for our surf..... still excited about the potential to able to ride a regular shortboard though

Edited: 08/18/2021 at 09:56 AM by Plan B

yes to the "regular shortboard". Been riding my 5'!!" Neilson thruster if it gets any push. mega shakas...

Virtual buoys finally responded with better data. Check your favorite wave models (unless you are chopola and just stick your finger in the air for wind direction and wait to see people run across A1A with boards to know there are waves. )

Why do the tides have to ruin the party?

-------------------------
Ah, religion, bigotry dressed up as morality.

Sometimes more water underneath these types of swells offer a better wave count.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm
still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints
of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images
continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not
appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is
still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates
range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial
intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength.

Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace
now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for
another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of
a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin
on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the
northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue
through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri
over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward
shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that
direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In
particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150
miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little
to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional
adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of
northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, which is the reason the vortex
is currently titled. The shear should persist for another day or
so, and little change in strength seems likely during that time
period. However, strengthening is expected on Friday and Saturday
as the shear decreases while the storm remains over the Gulf Stream.
Some weakening seems likely at days 4 and 5 when the storm is
expected to be over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast lies
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minor
changes were made to the previous prediction.

Key Messages:

1. The forecast track of Henri has shifted toward the northeast
coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, increasing the
risk of direct storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of
the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time.
Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of
Henri and check for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 29.9N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 71.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for
a portion of this area early Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to through tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north
and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the
United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be
near southern New England on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12
to 24 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by
Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this
afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to
support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997
mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally
steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the
northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined
to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric
cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear.

The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level
ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track
through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut
off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a
ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A
combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward
on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The
exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in
determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New
England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and
ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very
little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track
forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on
this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New
England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be
flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental
conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped
that these data will help the models more accurately predict the
future track of the storm.

Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast
philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for
another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely
during that time period. However, the global models show a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that,
and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable
for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady
intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and
Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over
much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5.
Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the
forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20
deg C.

It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near
New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore,
users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as
impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area early Friday.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 29.7N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Little ping on the 20

8/19/21 730pm

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Sunrise Surfer Swell! R.I.P. Dan. Everyone catch one or three for him.

I expect nothing less than the set of the day from everyone.

Henri is the Dan swell for sure. Some very sad surfers on here. My best Dan Moment: March 2013 coming in from an RCs session, Dan's driving by at the street crossing moment beeping his horn, thumbs up! Total stoke as always.

There are good sandbars at all tides available...

Sucks 120 mile canaveral buoy is not reporting swell height and period. Guess gotta keep refreshing 41009! Unless you are chopola...

Is that a hint of hype I detect in the air?

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

OBX is going to be pretty sick this weekend..... I probably need to trade my 2 old trucks for one new one, one of these days....

Yeah I can't get any data either on NOAA, must be down. Any spotters out there.

One moe "Sunrise Surfer Momment" I also wanted to share with my 2ndlight familia.

So I made my "Adult Comeback" to surfing after a 10+ year hiatus through the teen years, and had just joined 2ndlight surf forum (around 2003) so I was up to speed on all forecasted incoming swells. A Random hurricane sent MASSIVE swell to Brevard county 10' + faces (I want to say BARY?)! I was literally SHITTING MY PANTS looking at sets break.. I'd say at least 50-75 yards outside of the end of the pier, constantly refreshing the surfline cam and SUPER doubting my skill level at that point (only like 1.5 years into this comeback).. I watched a surfer STRAIGHT UP AND DOWN OWN a sick one waaay over his head from the back all the way in! THIS WAS my moment of clarity to say to myself, I CAN SURF THAT!!!

I Surfed my freaking face off that day, caught (what I called) a 12' foot face on the north side of the pier, biggest waves I've surfed to this day so far! Came back home and of course checked 2ndlight dot com to see all the images.. Low and behold, there was a pic of Sunrise on a big ass wave on that day and I specifically remember the stance\demeanor of the surfer that pumped me up to GO FOR IT! IT WAS DAN!!

The big homie was stoke'n peoples brains out when he wasn't even trying! Will miss seeing him in the lineup for sure.. "Here is to THE SUNRISE SURFER SWELL" TOMORROW bros n bras!

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Just checked the streets and nothing yet. There's something spinning in the middle of the ocean but it's still small out there

Here's the Heritage Surf Shop Report (Ocean City, NJ): Friday looks super fun as SE swell will be in the 3-4? range @11 seconds with light winds. Should be a great day, as well as Saturday, with the swell increasing as the storm approaches the waters off of Hatteras. Winds will depend on proximity of the storm but as of right now it looks favorable for us to see solid surf with light (onshore) winds. Sunday could be overhead and firing, but we could also see stiff NE winds - too far out to claim so stay tuned.

Edited: 08/19/2021 at 12:27 PM by eastcoastersrule

E.Hatty buoy showing major uptick this afternoon.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/stat...page.php?station=41001

Dangit..

Just checked the 20 mile buoy, and the 1 mile buoy, both are at 1' foot at 10 seconds! kinda looks like were getting skunked on this one you think guys?

-------------------------
SK8 AND DESTROY

7 feet and 10 seconds from the SE angle. That ain't coming our way.

Wish had E.Cana buoy, but guess gotta wake up and be a Sunrise Surfer tomorrow!

The thing is sitting on our front porch and we ain't getting nada.

I saw a little log wave that wasn't here this morning, so...

HYPE!

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I was right.

we'll get some waves, but i wouldnt be pulling the pintail from the rafters...... unless you're headed a several hundred miles NORTH

Better ping now. 1.6 feet at 10 sec ENE . we have an inbound swell

One guy out a the Pier looking slow

Not much this morning. Worse it's high tide

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 04:01 AM by RiddleMe

Hello 9-6 log, we meet yet again....

Well, should pickup a bit and be fun. Lets get after it. I got my 9'0" Neilson Hawaiian. I'm sure there will be the occasional paddle paddle to the outside sets.

Lol I immediately imagined up a skit opening garage and dusting off longboard as an older Simon and Garfunkel are standing on each side singing those lyrics.


-------------------------
Time and tide wait for no one.....

Checked the cams, yes, high tide and small. Should be an uptick bigger by noon. Low at 1pm. Wind is currently favorable with afternoon onshore predicted. I'm going surfing once the tide moves out some.

I've got a couple friends up in Hatteras and another one at cape cod. Can't wait to see what they get.

Thanks for the vizzies.
Sorry guys. I think it was me. I was too excited and waxed up my new midlength last night. Hopefully the bump up will come soon.

-------------------------
Time and tide wait for no one.....

and in Jupiter area.......hello flatness my old friend
On another note, is Magic Seaweed the worst forecast site out there, they have Jupiter area listed at 3-5 today at Noon, If that happens I will dance the irish jig

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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

Now we have something on the 20 that might not require a log when the tide drops a bit

How long does it take from the 20 to the beach Southern Brevard

AN hour maybe? Surfed CB streets. Tide high not terrible. Things to come should be good.

Checked several spots from Cocoa Beach to South Patrick and there wasn't much going on. There was a little peak at O'Club, but the 60 plus people in the water swarming for two foot grovellers wasn't very appealing. I'll check again in an hour as the tide falls, but it's looking like we got the shaft again.

-------------------------
I was right.

Just saw something. See ya'll out there. Wear some kind of sun protection. It's a scorcher today..

A slight bump up at the buoy, but it needs to show before the wind. The ocean is hot and the land is hot, with any luck it's a draw and the wind will stay still.

-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 07:05 AM by Cole

I'm pretty sure there may be an invisible underwater wave-shield surrounding St. Augustine.....

Was fun at Satellite towards lunchtime

I have fun this morning on the little clean stuff. Two good sets in the whole two hours but I got a really good wave out of each. Kind of think the peak size is going to be this evening but I don't think the seabreeze is going to be that bad. Might be fun even with a little texture.

-------------------------
...

I was hoping for more size. Log it is.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Satellite was 2-4 feet in inconsistent long period swell. It was glassy until the wind turned onshore at noon. Caught a few fun ones. Good warm up for bigger stuff for the bigger surf to come into September/October (knock on wood).

<=Not today! Nice lil brunch/liquid lunch somewheres between tips spot and dave's, lol the secrets out today, hello Henry! Fun lil glassy waist to chest sets with refreshing upwelling cool spots, like Dave says a good warmup for Big (but hopefully not too big) September! and now, back to my oar....uggh!

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 10:48 AM by IamSAW2

AS PREDICTED - once the tide backed off this morning (north o the cape) the outer sandbar started breaking and it was magical fun on the LB for a couple hours , (with a lot of turtles around, havn't seen that many in a long time.) ..? wooooo hooo x 10! tamari looks like a similar set up, with the weekend warriors and henri chasers, added to the mix

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 11:11 AM by StirfryMcflurry

It's maybe 3' long period up here in Volusia and is breaking outside but barely - more longboard wave then cane swell. Still something to surf ; )

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Update: just came back from a quick session now the low tide has passed, quite a bit bigger sets coming in now on outside, inconsistent but there if you're patient! Probably peak of swell will be next low tide or tomorrow DP?? Still nice little bit of stoke to finish the week, and thank GOD the storm isn't pointed at us - hope those folks up NE plan accordingly & stay safe as it's been a longgggg time!

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 12:10 PM by surferclimber

Fun on streets. Shortboardable

I drove over for my Dan, Sunrise Surfer tribute. Paddled out at sunrise. Caught a few for Dan. Wish the swell had arrived sooner.

-------------------------
Ah, religion, bigotry dressed up as morality.

Yep, a decent wave at the secret Satellite break. Had there not been an additional 150 people, it would have been really fun.



-------------------------
I was right.

I heard the chatter about increasing swell as the day played out, soooooo, I check it and wait, sunrise, no paddle out, gonna get bigger later!! Check around 10, same thing, gonna get bigger I`ll save it for that.. Check after dead low, still glassy but closing pretty bad, and no real increase yet so I wait, check around 4:40, not bigger yet, dang, oh well I do finally paddle out and figure with the incoming tide push and more water, with light on shores will be the call, way more makable, so I wait pretty much the whole day and was abit underwhelmed, but there is some swell in the water and I had a blast. Here`s to you Sunrise Dan, RIP Bro

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I've decided to accept the fact - I'll always be a big kid!

Edited: 08/20/2021 at 04:07 PM by JBSURF

Still waves this saturday, but half the size. In retrospect the virtual buoys did get it right. Most of the wind fetch was on the other side of the storm and not pointed at us. Saw some photos of hatteras, looked pretty big there. Looks like Long Island may take a hit. Also, of note in this discussion is about how the eye may have stronger winds today in the NW quadrant. Maybe a sneaky NE swell from it the next couple of days, and maybe not.

Strange showings on swell models for mid-week, but is that SE angle?!? Something to watch.

Glad I paddle out yesterday and got two hours in. I can tell you as getting older swimming 1/4 mile a day prior isn't enough to be in good surf shape. Nothing gets you in surf shape better than surfing. My Hammy wanted to cramp up on my last wave I caught after two hours. Prob due to it being 95F and two hours and approaching 60 years old combined. But, Inspired to get in better surf shape.

Also, my first outside set wave was dedicated to Sunrise Surfer. I said thank You Dan as I got to my feet. It was a very fun wave.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that
Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary
satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap
around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation
suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and
that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest
subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained
unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with
those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next
reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around
1200 UTC this morning.

Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to
upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and
Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of
the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward
tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over
portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into
the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the
cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope
continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast
period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of
the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking
Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the
NHC forecast as been modified accordingly.

Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough
to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to
strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly
shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt
later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are
likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the
center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate
of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around
day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is
near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24
hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 33.1N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

I guess I should have listened when the internet told me to forget about it.

A few spots in Satellite were really fun from 10:30 till noon.

I hope the next swell decides to be a little less specific.

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I was right.

same report up here, I had a good time.But I heard it was mo betta @ dawn patrol. Plan B, did u get sum?

It sucked up here!

sorry about yer luck....not for me pix on bluesky shore looked like fun!

Edited: 08/28/2021 at 05:17 AM by StirfryMcflurry

"I guess I should have listened when the internet told me to forget about it."

Old dogs can learn new tricks!

Fort pierce was good, or at least me and 400 new friends thought so.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

AKA the Zoo