FAR away.... but FIRED up. Should send some big enough swell to handle decay over that distance, and still have some solid long period punch. Unfortunately as Karen (or her remnants ) approach, it should increase the pressure gradient between the ridge and the onshore winds in the process.... hopefully we luck out with one solid (semi clean) day ..... Hopefully it slows down some, to keep swell in the water that outlasts the onshores.....The wrist is almost ready
A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently received scatterometer overpass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.
sorry about the shitty paragraphs.... not sure why it does that
Edited: 09/26/2019
at 08:34 AM
by Plan B