First disclaimer, it's long range thus not accurate, but you gotta raise your eyebrows on what is showing for next week.

Earlier today it showed a huge low off of Hatteras, it downgraded into this evening, but that may be hints that something is gonna happen.

Models always seems to over blow the storms in the long range then get downgraded closer to real time. However, 'tis the season for big storm surf. Knock on wood.

What's everyone's perception on how the models are performing this hurricane season. They seem iffy or maybe it's my imagination.

What a good time today. I am enjoying September so far.

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I'm supposed to be there Sept 24-27. Seems to just catch the tail end. The models leading up to our bit of surf kept changing and disagreeing with each other right up to the end. At the moment, Surfline and GFS and European models at Windy (but not Surf-Forecast) is expecting high wave energy Mon-Wed. for Florida, but with miserable onshore wind.

Edited: 09/16/2024 at 11:30 PM by ww

Tuesday morning models, both ECMWF and GFS showing a super low off hatteras next week. Gordon continues to spin way out in the atlantic (who knows if we see East ground swell from that). But, MRF/GFS shows a hurricane moving up from Cuba mid-week into the Gulf or on Florida. Time will tell, but the models are getting spooky about next week.

Waves for Days!

GFS and European have utterly different scenarios for 25-26. GFS has a hurricane headed across Cuba toward the Fla west coast, while ECMWF has that great big storm off of NC. As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center doesn't expect that low near Cuba to develop, so the GFS, now showing a big storm hitting Panama City, is disfavored, and something more like European accepted. European blesses us with surf Tues-Thurs

Edited: 09/18/2024 at 06:50 AM by ww

Long range models still showing some kind of Armageddon Low pressure system between Hatteras and Bermuda late weekend. Swell period models showing Tuesday large NE swell. Knock on wood...

Super long range showing possible hurricane in the Gulf and moving towards panhandle Wed/Thursday. That may provide offshore winds.

Something to watch for next week!

Time to heal up from the past 3 days of non-stop surfing!

The NHC is upping the odds of a Caribbean storm. Thurs morning Sept 19:

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

European and GFS models (via Windy) are showing different setups for the Atlantic coast, but both look encouraging for next week.

looking at some of the weather models Thursday morning.

The low off hatteras looks to be weaker than previous advertised, but still there. a Broad low pressure system from New England to Bermuda. Center looks to be further North than previous, but forecast to move South. Nice NE wind fetch possibility pointed at us. Virtual Storm surf buoy forecast has lowered the numbers as well. A few days ago it was rining out at 12 foot plus, now down to 6 feet for mid-week.

ECMWF still shows tropical system in the Gulf coming up from Cuba early to mid-week but drift towards Texas staying weak.

MRF/GFS, hyper CAT 6 Hurricane in the Gulf and moving up towards panhandle.

Tune in next week for another exciting episode of As The Models Turn...

GFS showing New Orleans as a target for Cat 5 hurricane by next weekend 9/28.

ECMWF has it off the coast of Texas same time frame as weak low pressure.

Let's see which one gets it right, or both wrong!

*WARNING WILL ROBINSON....
NWS MELBOURNE DISCUSION Thursday morning.

Sunday-Tuesday...

Ridging overtakes Florida aloft and surface high pressure remains to
our north, keeping easterly boundary-layer flow in place. Wave guidance shows increasing swells late this weekend which could make surf conditions hazardous for beach-goers.

Mid/late next week...

Confidence is quite low as we move deeper into next week. The latest
(19/00z) grand ensemble suite continues to indicate the Central
American Gyre (CAG) will consolidate waves of convection and deep
moisture in the NW Caribbean. In the mid-latitudes, the ensembles
also indicate substantial spread in the depth and speed of movement
of a trough riding atop a flat and weakening ridge axis extending
from Texas to Florida . Therefore, the guidance is split on where
this disturbance will be drawn and exactly when. At a bare
minimum, that has local implications on when rain and storm
chances increase.

There is currently a medium (40%) potential for tropical development
in the NW Caribbean or So. Gulf, near or within the developing CAG,
over the next 7 days. The timing and depth of the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough appears to be critical in the movement of any
tropical feature, if one were to develop. There is much
speculation regarding whether a tropical cyclone will form, and if
so, where it will ultimately go. Presently, the guidance shows a
wide gamut of potential outcomes. Ultimately, the impacts on our
area are unclear at this time - but it`s yet another reminder: we
are now in the heart of hurricane season. Let`s take this
opportunity to go over our hurricane preparation kits and plans.

Marine forecast to the NE of Cape Hatteras An "Occluded Low". This probably gonna light up South Florida as well. (If it happens) Stormsurf.com virtual buoys for Florida have really gone down in height forecast.



1027 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS
Low pressure just S of Georges Bank this morning will become nearly stationary over the far northern waters today through Fri. A stationary front will extend ENE from the low. The low will occlude tonight as a second low forms to the NE, E of Georges Bank. The occluded low will then drift slowly SE across the Outer Mid- Atlantic Waters Fri night through Sun night. A cold front extending S from the low will move slowly SE across the central waters today through Sat as the low occludes. A high pressure ridge will gradually build S into the northern and central waters Mon and Mon night.


Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshore
1027 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

TODAY
N to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers. Scattered tstms.

TONIGHT
N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.

FRI
N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Slight chance of tstms.

FRI NIGHT
N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and slight chance of tstms.

SAT
N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

SAT NIGHT
N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

SUN
N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft.

SUN NIGHT
N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

MON
N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

MON NIGHT
N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

per Windy.com 12Z GFS has strong hurricane coming aground Tampa, Saturday 28th.

I need to stop looking at the models. Think hurricane preparedness (Wax, sunscreen, big wave board, beer)... soon is good advice!

ECMWF still got it towards Texas, but stalling then moving East.

The GFS hurricane on Windy has shifted from Tampa to New Orleans--and the European model still isn't showing much. Surfline looks discouraging for us. Friday.

Edited: 09/20/2024 at 07:51 AM by ww

chasing ghost!

Need more surf...

The Central American Gyre is still forecast to become active over
the NW Caribbean by early next week. A propensity of ensemble
members eventually develops negative pressure anomalies near the
Yucatan Channel. There is a medium chance of eventual tropical
development from this feature. However, it`s too early to
determine whether impacts will occur locally.

Later Next Week...

All eyes remain on the extended forecast as most ensemble members
and their respective means congeal deep tropical moisture and lower
surface pressures over the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico.
Unfortunately, that`s about where the agreement stops. The National
Hurricane Center still highlights a 40% chance of tropical
development with this disturbance. At this time, however, there is
currently no well-defined system for models to track. Furthermore,
the mid-latitude longwave pattern will be in the process of
realignment.

A weak trough is expected to push into the Midwest as
ridging builds over the West ahead of an enhanced Pacific jet.
There is a significant spread in the depth and timing of the
Midwestern trough and its embedded vort maxima. All told, one
should not expect a lot of clarity on this setup for 2-3 more days
at least.

It`s still way too early to determine whether any local impacts from
this potential disturbance will occur. For now, we are showing a
gradual uptick in shower/storm chances late next week. Keep checking
weather.gov/mlb for updates over the next few days.

Friday stormsurf virtual buoy doesn't show any significant swell for next week now.

Lol.

NHC hsd upped the developent odds up to 60% and Windy has European and GFS sort of agreeing on a big storm hitting New Orleans or Mobile with Panama City possibly getting a storm surge/wind beating. Surfline is pretty meh until two weeks from now but morning surf checks seem worthwhile.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Cocoa Beach was chest plus this morning with good form. In some places.

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I was right.

Models are firming up with landfall somewhere between Panama City and Cedar Key, main wind field well east of landfall. The area's been hit recently. Sunday 11 pm

The forecasters are struggling with getting tomorrows weather right. Where this storm goes no one knows.

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I was right.

NHC became pretty firm about what to expect on Monday. Major hurricane, likely east of Tallahassee. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graph...4.shtml?start#contents

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.

Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

there is currently a 3 feet 12 seconds NE swell on the 20 mile buoy. this is from that low off of New Englang. I hope that swell can overcome the strong offshores coming and we get great surf when Helen gets to the North of us and gives us offshores. Marine forecast calls for South winds on Friday, but that may be wrong and it could be SW on Friday.


Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm
1121 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

REST OF TODAY
Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.

THURSDAY
Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. Seas 7 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, building to 8 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet in the afternoon.

FRIDAY
South winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, subsiding to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet in the afternoon.

SATURDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.


SUNDAY
West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.

Looking like a sequel to Michael, but farther east. Looks like a serious tropical storm wind threat to Atlanta, and wind gusts and very heavy rain in the southern Appalachians.

Thurs, 11 am, crowd at Navarre Pier, western Panhandle. Clean. NHC discussion for 11 am EDT notes that it may be a bit short of cat-4 at landfall, but is an enormous storm.

Here's a quote:

It should also be re-emphasized that Helene is a very large hurricane. In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

FRIDAY
Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

3:30, rechecked Navarre (Santa Rosa Co.) and there's a crowd and even a lifeguard.

Eye went right over Perry at midnight

I surfed at noon today. It was 3-4 feet. strong sideshore drift North. Difficult to catch. Saw a couple good rides. Hopefully gets better when the wind dies down.

Fun cleanup about 10 further south. Woot?

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Cocoa Beach was head high and terrible Friday evening. Our once good bars are now jacked from the hard southerly current.

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I was right.

a 3 feet 12 second NE swell continues to show on the 20 mile buoy this Saturday morning. Looks like NHC named that New England to Bermuda and now half way to England low pressure system mentioned first on this post.

NHC, 8 pm Saturday Sep 28:

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Windy: GFS has a hurricane hitting near Panama City Sunday 6th, European a potential very, very bad storm surge scenario for Charlotte Harbor to Pinellas.

There may be a fairly long-period swell event from a huge central Atlantic storm around Oct. 8. Surf-Forecast is bigger than Surfline and both seem to favor north of the Cape over south. Still far out.

Big Kirk. NHC

GFS no longer shows the gulf storm. Good.

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Nor European. But there is possibly an interesting circulation that has wind rotating around the edges of the Gulf. Not great for surfable waves. The Atlantic continues to evolve, lively in both GFS and European. As of Wednesday morning, Surfline is showing a spate of mostly wind waves.

Edited: 10/02/2024 at 07:13 AM by ww

In the southern Brevard surf spots major Trough like 7 feet deep at low tide. Nyce!

NHC discussion, Thursday morning:

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.

Edited: 10/03/2024 at 01:28 PM by ww