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Topic Title: Big swell showing Sunday and next week.
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Created On: 03/16/2021 05:20 AM
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 03/16/2021 05:20 AM
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Central Floridave

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If you look at any of the swell models Sunday/Monday standout as a great increase in sea and wind. Looks like a low pressure may form off the coast.

Saturday-Tuesday...Model guidance continues to trend toward slightly
better agreement in handling the SW flank of the departing trough,
which is now forecast to pinch off into a closed low offshore the SE
coast, and continue to drift SE as is become trapped beneath a
strong ridge building to its north. While the GFS is slightly
farther east with the low aloft, differences at the surface have
become fairly minimal. A strong high pressure ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS/western Atlantic, which produces a strong surge of NE
to ENE winds spreading south/inland from the Atlantic into Florida
this weekend. This will produce breezy to windy conditions along
with unsettled (showery) weather for this weekend, especially along
the coast, with conditions slowly easing early next week.
 03/16/2021 05:36 AM
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Central Floridave

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.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure is building into the
western Atlantic today, which has already caused our local winds to
veer south and increase to 10-15 knots. Winds become southeast along
the immediate coast after the sea breeze develops early afternoon,
with gusts up to 20 knots possible. The increase in winds and swells
builds seas to 4-5 feet nearshore, and up to 6 feet offshore. Small
craft should exercise caution today. These poor boating conditions
into tonight as conditions improve towards sunrise Wednesday.

Wednesday into this weekend...Moderate SE-S flow Wed will increase
as it veers SW ahead of the approaching cold front, which passes
through Thu night/early Fri morning. Seas will generally remain in
the 3-4ft range near shore and 5-6ft offshore through Thu night,
then decrease Fri-Sat.

While we generally don`t discuss marine conditions beyond the 5-day
forecast period, feel that it`s prudent to do so this morning...

By late Sat a significant surge of onshore/NE-E winds will commence
over the outer Volusia Co. waters, then spread south and inland
through the weekend. This is due to a combination of a strong high
pressure ridge building over the mid Atlantic States and western
Atlantic, while a weak low pressure trough forms near SEFL and the
Bahamas. Current model guidance is coming into much better agreement
that near gale conditions will develop over the local waters this
weekend, with seas and surf building to dangerously high levels for
boating and beach interests (i.e. 10-15ft seas and breaking waves of
7ft or higher) Sat night through Monday.
 03/16/2021 01:40 PM
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Central Floridave

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Tuesday update, NWS Melbourne:

By late Sat a significant surge of onshore/NE-E winds will commence
over the outer Volusia Co. waters, then spread south and inland
through the weekend. This is due to a combination of a strong high
pressure ridge building over the mid Atlantic States and western
Atlantic, while a weak low pressure trough forms near SEFL and the
Bahamas. Current model guidance is coming into much better agreement
that near gale conditions will develop over the local waters this
weekend, with seas and surf building to dangerously high levels for
boating and beach interests (i.e. 10-15ft seas and breaking waves of
7ft or higher) Sat night through Monday.

 03/16/2021 06:51 PM
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johnnyboy

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Hot damn. Wind even looks right.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 03/16/2021 11:19 PM
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ww

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    Windy shows the wind and wind waves moving into NE Fla on Saturday, then things getting interesting and swell developing into Wednesday. By the end of the event, goodies for Miami Beach?
    Looks like wind mess north of the Cape and some better opportunities southward
 03/17/2021 03:37 AM
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Cole

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NNW at 20 plus when the swell hits.

Light west all day Friday; swell, one foot.

-------------------------
So long and thanks for all the fish.
 03/17/2021 08:35 AM
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Central Floridave

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virtual buoys dropped the size down some in today's model runs. But, still show sizeable stuff Sunday/Monday.

NWS Melb saying low pressure off coast late weekend, timing and position variable. Thus, we wait and let the real weather figure it out!

Regardless, keep an eye on it. Maybe some fun stuff with local winds favorable. I don't really trust weather models this far out, but gotta look at something.
 03/17/2021 02:33 PM
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Cole

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The new one shows almost no swell at all. 2 to 3, maybe.

From 10 to 15 feet, to waist high?

-------------------------
So long and thanks for all the fish.

Edited: 03/17/2021 at 02:34 PM by Cole
 03/18/2021 06:07 AM
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Central Floridave

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I know i'm chasing long range model forecast, but look at that possible low pressure form near Bermuda on Wed/24th. Interesting if that happens. I remember a swell from a storm in March a long time ago that provided a week long long period swell. Something to watch. We need some bigger swell around here! Sunday/Monday, still showing weak low off the coast. Hatteras marine forecast calling for Gale force North to NE winds for Friday/Saturday.

434 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SYNOPSIS
The Atlantic ridge axis over south Florida this
morning will retreat eastward this afternoon ahead of a cold
front, as winds veer to southwest and increase. The front will
cross the local waters late tonight into early Friday morning
accompanied by scattered showers and a few storms.

Strengthening northeast to north winds and building seas will
occur this weekend between a strong high pressure ridge over the
eastern U.S. and a developing low pressure area offshore the
Florida east coast. This will bring hazardous boating conditions
to the local waters this weekend.
 03/18/2021 06:09 AM
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Central Floridave

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Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters

Strong low pressure will pass to the north later today and
tonight pushing a cold front through Friday. High pressure will
build south over the area this weekend into early next week
while low pressure slowly churns off of the southeast coast.
 03/18/2021 06:16 AM
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Central Floridave

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Latest thinking by NWS Melbourne:

Saturday-Sunday... A strong high pressure ridge is forecast to build
southward along the SE Atlantic coast this weekend, as an area of
low pressure takes shape east of Florida. Where the low forms will
have a significant impact on how tight the local pressure gradient
will get. For now, going closer with the ECM model, with wind speeds
near 20 KT in the Volusia near and offshore waters, and 10-15kt from
Brevard southward. Seas this weekend will build to 6-9ft by late
Saturday night, and 6-8 ft in the nearshore and 9-11ft in the
offshore waters Sunday.

Model guidance continues to be erratic with the strength and the
position of low, thus winds/seas/surf could be a little lower or
higher. Nevertheless, deteriorating conditions are very likely this
weekend.

Next Week... Wind and sea conditions will still remain hazardous at
the beginning of the work week, but will slowly improve starting
Monday. Seas will decrease to 6-9ft by Monday evening and further
decrease to 5-7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will be NE around 15-18kt through the first half of the work week.
 03/18/2021 07:53 AM
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johnnyboy

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I feel like I am checking Surfline, Magic' seaweed and every other source by the minute. Btw, yesterday was waist to chest high clean surf with favorable wind until 11. Had a blast.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 03/18/2021 08:14 AM
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TATTOO74

Posts: 2336
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Originally posted by: johnnyboy

I feel like I am checking Surfline, Magic' seaweed and every other source by the minute. Btw, yesterday was waist to chest high clean surf with favorable wind until 11. Had a blast.


You n me both; I have a 11am T Time Sunday at Cocoa Bch Country Club that I may need to cancel!!
 03/18/2021 08:31 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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sunday looking interesting !

-------------------------
Pick up my guitar and play, just like yesterday
 03/18/2021 01:41 PM
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LaJune

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Very interesting. I've been watching Sunday's forecast the last couple days and everything but MSW said unfavorable N winds Sunday for surfing so I was not optimistic. Then MSW fell in line with all the other wind forecasts last night and also predicted blasting winds from the N for Sunday. But this morning MSW is calling for light NW for most of the day and weather.com is also predicting NW wind but a bit stronger. Still not optimistic after all the swell we got in 2020 with crap winds though.

-------------------------
Heavy is sign of reliability
 03/18/2021 03:41 PM
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johnnyboy

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Stuart looks like the epicenter.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 03/18/2021 06:21 PM
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ww

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I've been complaining about lack of camera opportunities.
 03/19/2021 06:09 AM
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TATTOO74

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I think this thing went kaput.. Glad I kept the T Time!
 03/19/2021 06:26 AM
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ww

Posts: 15198
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Surfline pulled the plug. Others, not.
 03/19/2021 06:40 AM
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tom

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Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

by others we presume you mean surf.hypetrain.org?

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
FORUMS : Surfing : Big swell showing Sunday and next week.

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