Hey Matt B ... How the hell o are you ??? :)

2nd Light Forums
Decrease font size
Increase font size
Topic Title: Gulf system next week
Topic Summary:
Created On: 05/25/2022 07:13 AM
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch
Topic Tools Topic Tools
View topic in raw text format. Print this topic.
 05/25/2022 07:13 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Lunchmeat

Posts: 3420
Joined Forum: 08/02/2003

Models are hinting at a system forming in the BOC and drifting NE into the middle of the Gulf next week. Caught Anna Marie good last summer, would love a repeat.
 05/25/2022 06:25 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Kimo63

Posts: 517
Joined Forum: 04/22/2012

Models have been all over the place , the latest GFS has a storm slotting the Fl Straits June 4th . So , probably something is going to pop but where and when.
 05/26/2022 03:37 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


StirfryMcflurry

Posts: 5511
Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

a wise CFLDave once said..."Always big and great surf in the long range forecast!"

-------------------------
Ima just island boy, and I'm tryin to make it, Ima island boy
 05/26/2022 06:02 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Lunchmeat

Posts: 3420
Joined Forum: 08/02/2003

I'm hungry and will stay glued to the models. Like Kimo said models are still showing weak storm going over keys then strengthening some off our coast as it moves slowly NE. at least theres hope!
 05/26/2022 06:50 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Kimo63

Posts: 517
Joined Forum: 04/22/2012

The GFS is our friend at the moment , it has a couple Storms sliding out south of the state going NE . Might get lucky after that with some return swell . Fingers crossed . Next week Wed through the weekend 6/4 are the days to watch
 05/27/2022 07:39 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 50647
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 27 2022

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 25N90W. Another trough
prevails over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 21N between 92W-96W. Surface ridging is building
across the basin, with scatterometer data depicting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue building across
the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing
over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will
develop across the NW waters by early next week due to a pressure
gradient building in the area.
 05/27/2022 11:04 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 50647
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

NWS-Melbourne discussion from last night.

Sun-Fri...Adequate moisture lingers over the area thru the extended
as deepening onshore flow takes over Sun night/early Mon lasting
well into the period. Still some continued uncertainty with medium
range models as the GFS remains hell-bent on developing a weak
tropical low well east of the central FL coast Wed night/Thu and a
stronger system over the FL Straits on Fri.
For now, expect sea
breeze collisions across the central peninsula late Sun, then with a
deepening - more stable onshore flow, a higher threat for convection
at night and in the morning across the coast and an increasing
threat over the interior (WC FL) in the afternoon and early evening
periods. We keep the highest PoPs (50-60pct) south of Orlando once
again on Sun, then a 30-50pct average areawide the remainder of the
upcoming work-week, though at some point PoPs may have to be better
aligned showing highest chances inland once the models show some
better consistency. Also, the models do show some weak troughiness
aloft across the central peninsula near mid-week that could enhance
daily convection.
 05/27/2022 08:24 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Kimo63

Posts: 517
Joined Forum: 04/22/2012

I'm hell-bent on following these two possible spinners . Could be a long spell after these all wash out
 05/28/2022 05:56 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


jdbman

Posts: 11750
Joined Forum: 07/28/2003

"Saturday AM Tropical Update. Leftover Pacific Agatha looking like something to watch next week as it heads NE in the Gulf." Mike

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.
 05/29/2022 02:07 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


ww

Posts: 15404
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Agatha looks bad for Oaxaca state. Charities are collecting money already.
 05/29/2022 11:04 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 50647
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak
trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by
mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it
lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate
to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through
early week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the region through early week.
 05/30/2022 05:40 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


jdbman

Posts: 11750
Joined Forum: 07/28/2003

"Monday AM Tropical Update. NHC bumping up Gulf spot to watch to 40%. General thinking so far is a sloppy sheared system towards Florida and/or the Bahamas this weekend. Lots of incoming juice possible... some storms too." Mike

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.
 05/31/2022 06:08 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 50647
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 05/31/2022 09:29 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


ww

Posts: 15404
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

European and GFS have differences but both seem to be going for a big, diffuse storm with moderate SE wind on our coast. Tomorrow evening's forecasts might be interesting.
Statistics
146332 users are registered to the 2nd Light Forums forum.
There are currently 1 users logged in to the forum.

FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2022 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.

First there was Air Jordan .