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Topic Title: Winter returns.
Topic Summary:
Created On: 11/30/2020 04:43 AM
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 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 11/30/2020 04:43 AM  
 Winter returns.   - ww - 11/30/2020 11:04 PM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/01/2020 10:33 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/02/2020 07:32 AM  
 Winter returns.   - weldertom2 - 12/03/2020 11:39 AM  
 Winter returns.   - TATTOO74 - 12/03/2020 11:45 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/03/2020 02:11 PM  
 Winter returns.   - surftech - 12/06/2020 11:35 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/07/2020 05:37 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/07/2020 05:42 AM  
 Winter returns.   - ww - 12/08/2020 11:40 PM  
 Winter returns.   - TATTOO74 - 12/09/2020 05:35 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/09/2020 10:18 AM  
 Winter returns.   - Central Floridave - 12/09/2020 01:50 PM  
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 11/30/2020 04:43 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49260
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

It was a nice two week Autumn. Winter returns today.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...
...A Few Strong Storms This Morning Across East-Central
Florida...
...Cold Temperatures Beginning Tonight through early Wednesday,
with Frost Possible Wednesday Morning...


Today-Tonight...A strong cold front will move across the Florida
peninsula today, initially bringing a chance for strong storms this
morning, before passage of the front.

A developing line of showers currently over the eastern gulf will
quickly cross toward central Florida early today. While most of
this activity will move over east central Florida after sunrise,
fast-moving showers or storms may reach portions of Lake and
northwestern Volusia county by 6 AM.

Primary threats with any stronger storms will be wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph and occasional to frequent lightning, but an isolated
damaging wind gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Overall
confidence is somewhat low in severe potential, with the consensus
of regional guidance indicating a weakening trend as the broken line
of showers/storms crosses southward over the area. Best potential
for stronger storms will be roughly along and north of a line from
Poinciana to Saint Cloud and Cocoa Beach.

Main storm threats will be damaging wind gusts of 40-50 mph and
lightning strikes, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible. The
trailing cold front should move south of I-4 around 11 AM, and
Melbourne by early afternoon, and clearing the Treasure Coast around
sunset. Temperatures will reach highest of the day rather early in
the north, while being able to make it to the U70s or even 80
over South Brevard Co to the Treasure Coast before rain chcs
increase. Tonight, rapid cooling as temps fall through the 50s and
into the 40s. Expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s along and
north of Interstate 4, and in the mid to upper 40s south, except
low 50s in Martin County. West to Northwest winds around 10 mph
will result in wind chills in the mid to upper 30s from Kissimmee
to Scottsmoor northward.

Tue-Tue night...By far, the coldest day-night of the fall season
thus far is on tap for ECFL. Deep eastern CONUS mid-upper trough
will move slowly eastward, leading to a continued strong CAA
pattern. Model consensus keeps the surface high center west of the
longitude of the peninsular spine (near the central AL/GA border)
through 12Z, with the H925-H85 farther SW over souther MS/AL. This
should prevent low level flow from acquiring any meaningful onshore
component along the coast, keeping a light N-NW drainage flow in
place through sunrise. The only potential for *slight* mitigation
of the cold that I can see in the model guidance is some possible
CI late, hinted at in the upper RH progs, especially in the GFS.
However, the upper level flow looks confluent, which would inhibit
significant coverage/thickness of any high cloud deck. Therefore the
forecast remains largely unchanged.

Guidance has trended colder for Tue maxes, not surprising since MOS
usually overdoes maxes in strong post-frontal CAA. The forecast now
shows U50s for all but the Lake O/Treasure Coast areas (L60s), only
~55F across the far north. Mins will drop down to 34-36F over rural
northern Lake/Volusia Counties, with U30s well down the peninsula to
Lake O and the interior Treasure Coast counties. Slightly less cold
along the Space/Treasure Coast barrier islands (L-M40s) and Martin
County (M-U40s). Even with a light drainage flow in place, patchy
frost will be possible in wind protected areas, especially inland
from the immediate coast.

Wed-Fri...Fast/flat mid-upper flow pattern continues from mid-late
week. Weak vort ripples embedded in the southern stream moves from
the GOMEX across FL Wed night though Thu night, leading to an
increase in clouds/sprinkles and perhaps some accumulating light
rain showers Thu night-Fri, possibly starting as early as late Thu
afternoon. As the large cold surface high moves offshore the SE/mid
Atlantic coast, winds veer from NW/Wed to E/Thu and SE/Thu night.
A northern stream short wave trough is forecast to drag another cool
front across the FL panhandle Fri and into the peninsula Fri night.

Veering flow will modify temps through the period. Maxes mainly in
the 60s for Wed with mins randing from the M-U40s NW of I-4 to the
U50S-L60s along the Treasure coast, where winds will have veered
onshore. Maxes in the L-M70s Thu and M-U70s with mins U50s-L60s.

Next Weekend-Mon...While differences continue in the model handling
of individual short wave features, the longer wave pattern will
feature a trough over the eastern CONUS. This would keep ECFL in a
NW low-mid level flow pattern, with dry wx and below normal temps
through the period.
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