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Topic Title: Winter returns. Topic Summary: Created On: 11/30/2020 04:43 AM |
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- Central Floridave | - 11/30/2020 04:43 AM |
- ww | - 11/30/2020 11:04 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 12/01/2020 10:33 AM |
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- weldertom2 | - 12/03/2020 11:39 AM |
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- surftech | - 12/06/2020 11:35 AM |
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- TATTOO74 | - 12/09/2020 05:35 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 12/09/2020 10:18 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 12/09/2020 01:50 PM |
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11/30/2020 04:43 AM
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It was a nice two week Autumn. Winter returns today.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 .DISCUSSION... ...A Few Strong Storms This Morning Across East-Central Florida... ...Cold Temperatures Beginning Tonight through early Wednesday, with Frost Possible Wednesday Morning... Today-Tonight...A strong cold front will move across the Florida peninsula today, initially bringing a chance for strong storms this morning, before passage of the front. A developing line of showers currently over the eastern gulf will quickly cross toward central Florida early today. While most of this activity will move over east central Florida after sunrise, fast-moving showers or storms may reach portions of Lake and northwestern Volusia county by 6 AM. Primary threats with any stronger storms will be wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and occasional to frequent lightning, but an isolated damaging wind gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Overall confidence is somewhat low in severe potential, with the consensus of regional guidance indicating a weakening trend as the broken line of showers/storms crosses southward over the area. Best potential for stronger storms will be roughly along and north of a line from Poinciana to Saint Cloud and Cocoa Beach. Main storm threats will be damaging wind gusts of 40-50 mph and lightning strikes, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible. The trailing cold front should move south of I-4 around 11 AM, and Melbourne by early afternoon, and clearing the Treasure Coast around sunset. Temperatures will reach highest of the day rather early in the north, while being able to make it to the U70s or even 80 over South Brevard Co to the Treasure Coast before rain chcs increase. Tonight, rapid cooling as temps fall through the 50s and into the 40s. Expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s along and north of Interstate 4, and in the mid to upper 40s south, except low 50s in Martin County. West to Northwest winds around 10 mph will result in wind chills in the mid to upper 30s from Kissimmee to Scottsmoor northward. Tue-Tue night...By far, the coldest day-night of the fall season thus far is on tap for ECFL. Deep eastern CONUS mid-upper trough will move slowly eastward, leading to a continued strong CAA pattern. Model consensus keeps the surface high center west of the longitude of the peninsular spine (near the central AL/GA border) through 12Z, with the H925-H85 farther SW over souther MS/AL. This should prevent low level flow from acquiring any meaningful onshore component along the coast, keeping a light N-NW drainage flow in place through sunrise. The only potential for *slight* mitigation of the cold that I can see in the model guidance is some possible CI late, hinted at in the upper RH progs, especially in the GFS. However, the upper level flow looks confluent, which would inhibit significant coverage/thickness of any high cloud deck. Therefore the forecast remains largely unchanged. Guidance has trended colder for Tue maxes, not surprising since MOS usually overdoes maxes in strong post-frontal CAA. The forecast now shows U50s for all but the Lake O/Treasure Coast areas (L60s), only ~55F across the far north. Mins will drop down to 34-36F over rural northern Lake/Volusia Counties, with U30s well down the peninsula to Lake O and the interior Treasure Coast counties. Slightly less cold along the Space/Treasure Coast barrier islands (L-M40s) and Martin County (M-U40s). Even with a light drainage flow in place, patchy frost will be possible in wind protected areas, especially inland from the immediate coast. Wed-Fri...Fast/flat mid-upper flow pattern continues from mid-late week. Weak vort ripples embedded in the southern stream moves from the GOMEX across FL Wed night though Thu night, leading to an increase in clouds/sprinkles and perhaps some accumulating light rain showers Thu night-Fri, possibly starting as early as late Thu afternoon. As the large cold surface high moves offshore the SE/mid Atlantic coast, winds veer from NW/Wed to E/Thu and SE/Thu night. A northern stream short wave trough is forecast to drag another cool front across the FL panhandle Fri and into the peninsula Fri night. Veering flow will modify temps through the period. Maxes mainly in the 60s for Wed with mins randing from the M-U40s NW of I-4 to the U50S-L60s along the Treasure coast, where winds will have veered onshore. Maxes in the L-M70s Thu and M-U70s with mins U50s-L60s. Next Weekend-Mon...While differences continue in the model handling of individual short wave features, the longer wave pattern will feature a trough over the eastern CONUS. This would keep ECFL in a NW low-mid level flow pattern, with dry wx and below normal temps through the period. |
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