1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Latest NHC discussion:

Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Graphics indicate a track and likely as not hurricane winds crossing Brevard. Link updated to 5 pm Saturday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...T4+shtml/051459.shtml?

Edited: 10/05/2024 at 03:13 PM by ww

Oh joy! I truly hate losing electricity.

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I was right.

NHC: Cat 3 Tampa Bay Weds. Ugh. Still time for changes but the spaghetti is pretty tight.

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Surfline andSurf Forecast are predicting very high wave energies and offshore winds mid-Thursday into Friday. i'm sure forecasts will change a lot by Wednesday.

So far looking like peak gusts around 55 mph Brevard beachside on either Wed or Thurs depending on the model.

Orlando looks like it could get up to 70 mph gusts on one of those days

Tampa looking worse.

Edited: 10/05/2024 at 06:14 PM by paddleout

These intensification rates are nutz. From NHC: "Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. ". Sheesh.

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Yeah that's some quick build. Luckily the storm will be travelling very fast across the state.
I'm still seeing max gusts around 55mph for beachside Brevard on the Euro model (GFS is a little less)
But I don't quite trust it, although it has been very accurate in the past. Regardless, I am preparing for twice that: 100mph gusts or more.
You can check it out for yourself at www.windy.com
it is all based on the ECMWF and GFS models.
right click and put a weather picker on your location and run the timeline along the bottom to see what the models predict as far as wind speeds
you can change the models and see an enhanced forecast for your location that shows gusts

Edited: 10/06/2024 at 03:57 PM by paddleout

west coasters, get the fuck out, and East coasters shutter those windows and hunker down!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Ah mondays: ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h).

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Compare that to yesterday's forecast dave posted just for grins

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Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected for location/distances in the summary section

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

The 5 pm advisory has MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H

It may still a weak hurricane as it crosses the Atlantic coast, which the European model puts at Cape Canaveral. That means hasty onshore winds for Volusia, offshor for Brevard, on the model as displayed at Windy. NWS at the moment isn't predicting extreme storm surgs for NE Florida.

It's gonna be a'rockin'. poor St Pete and Tampa area. Ugh. For us we gonna see a lot of shit. Prob 70mph which is pretty intense. SE winds as the cane approaches then SW winds first then followed by strong NW winds. Hopefully the models are wrong! NHC does admit storm is suppose to weak, but only down to 125 mph for landfall. That is gonna fug up St Pete and flood Tampa.

Stormsurf 20 mile virtual buoy says a spike to 22 feet on Friday. I'd hate to own a house on the dune line in Daytona and Brevard coming up!

Bye bye sand.

I'm putting shutters up tomorrow and tonight been cleaning the yard for any loose debris.

Tampa/St Pete is gonna get 'You Know What'd'!!! 6 UDT model forecasts are up to 188 Mph in 24-36 hours!

AND, take note that this M F'r could still be "Major" when iy leaves Cape Canaveral!!!!!!!!! We could get big time FUCKED!!!!!!





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Dora Hates You

Edited: 10/07/2024 at 04:03 PM by dingpatch

Tomorrow night's NHC forcast is going to let me know if I might need to 'pack a bag'. I am not going to sit through another night of hurricane winds.

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Dora Hates You

The 11 pm Monday advisory. is as dismal as earlier in the day. The storm's winds are down a bit, but it looks to be a cat-1 or cat-2 storm when leaving the Atlantic coast

4 AM Tuesday discussion: "Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone."

Surf-Forecast and Surfline are predicting enormously high wave energy for Friday, like 4,000 kJ.

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 05:52 AM by ww

Wind models are down this morning but, still 2 'variables' in the equation: 1. Milton is/or is getting ready to take a slight turn Northward. 2. Then there is 'forecast' to be a slight turn to the East 'kinda before landfall.

The North 'turn' will kinda sorta predict where it is 'going' to being "North or South" of the current track of 'Tampa'. The degree and timing of the Eastward 'jog' will then come into play.

Let's say that without the North jog, it is headed to Naples. Then, with the North jog it is heading across the state to Jacksonville. So, unless and until it jogs North, , , , , Wildcard??

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