1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Latest NHC discussion:

Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Graphics indicate a track and likely as not hurricane winds crossing Brevard. Link updated to 5 pm Saturday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...T4+shtml/051459.shtml?

Edited: 10/05/2024 at 03:13 PM by ww

Oh joy! I truly hate losing electricity.

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I was right.

NHC: Cat 3 Tampa Bay Weds. Ugh. Still time for changes but the spaghetti is pretty tight.

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Surfline andSurf Forecast are predicting very high wave energies and offshore winds mid-Thursday into Friday. i'm sure forecasts will change a lot by Wednesday.

So far looking like peak gusts around 55 mph Brevard beachside on either Wed or Thurs depending on the model.

Orlando looks like it could get up to 70 mph gusts on one of those days

Tampa looking worse.

Edited: 10/05/2024 at 06:14 PM by paddleout

These intensification rates are nutz. From NHC: "Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. ". Sheesh.

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Yeah that's some quick build. Luckily the storm will be travelling very fast across the state.
I'm still seeing max gusts around 55mph for beachside Brevard on the Euro model (GFS is a little less)
But I don't quite trust it, although it has been very accurate in the past. Regardless, I am preparing for twice that: 100mph gusts or more.
You can check it out for yourself at www.windy.com
it is all based on the ECMWF and GFS models.
right click and put a weather picker on your location and run the timeline along the bottom to see what the models predict as far as wind speeds
you can change the models and see an enhanced forecast for your location that shows gusts

Edited: 10/06/2024 at 03:57 PM by paddleout

west coasters, get the fuck out, and East coasters shutter those windows and hunker down!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Ah mondays: ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h).

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Compare that to yesterday's forecast dave posted just for grins

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Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected for location/distances in the summary section

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

The 5 pm advisory has MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H

It may still a weak hurricane as it crosses the Atlantic coast, which the European model puts at Cape Canaveral. That means hasty onshore winds for Volusia, offshor for Brevard, on the model as displayed at Windy. NWS at the moment isn't predicting extreme storm surgs for NE Florida.

It's gonna be a'rockin'. poor St Pete and Tampa area. Ugh. For us we gonna see a lot of shit. Prob 70mph which is pretty intense. SE winds as the cane approaches then SW winds first then followed by strong NW winds. Hopefully the models are wrong! NHC does admit storm is suppose to weak, but only down to 125 mph for landfall. That is gonna fug up St Pete and flood Tampa.

Stormsurf 20 mile virtual buoy says a spike to 22 feet on Friday. I'd hate to own a house on the dune line in Daytona and Brevard coming up!

Bye bye sand.

I'm putting shutters up tomorrow and tonight been cleaning the yard for any loose debris.

Tampa/St Pete is gonna get 'You Know What'd'!!! 6 UDT model forecasts are up to 188 Mph in 24-36 hours!

AND, take note that this M F'r could still be "Major" when iy leaves Cape Canaveral!!!!!!!!! We could get big time FUCKED!!!!!!





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Dora Hates You

Edited: 10/07/2024 at 04:03 PM by dingpatch

Tomorrow night's NHC forcast is going to let me know if I might need to 'pack a bag'. I am not going to sit through another night of hurricane winds.

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Dora Hates You

The 11 pm Monday advisory. is as dismal as earlier in the day. The storm's winds are down a bit, but it looks to be a cat-1 or cat-2 storm when leaving the Atlantic coast

4 AM Tuesday discussion: "Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone."

Surf-Forecast and Surfline are predicting enormously high wave energy for Friday, like 4,000 kJ.

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 05:52 AM by ww

Wind models are down this morning but, still 2 'variables' in the equation: 1. Milton is/or is getting ready to take a slight turn Northward. 2. Then there is 'forecast' to be a slight turn to the East 'kinda before landfall.

The North 'turn' will kinda sorta predict where it is 'going' to being "North or South" of the current track of 'Tampa'. The degree and timing of the Eastward 'jog' will then come into play.

Let's say that without the North jog, it is headed to Naples. Then, with the North jog it is heading across the state to Jacksonville. So, unless and until it jogs North, , , , , Wildcard??

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Dora Hates You

Fuck! The NHC 10 AM, 10/8/24, still shows it as a Hurricane when it passes over us Thursday morning.



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Dora Hates You

Wind probabilities for Brevard beaches are a bit higher than for Orlando, but still only a big higher than for Fort Pierce, which has only a tropical storm warning. NHC wind probabilities

Hmmmmm, , , , the current model 'ensemble' forecast's 'means' are tending south of TB and then exiting perhaps down towards Vero/FP??!!

weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/AL14

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Dora Hates You

Weather underground shows Milton as a cat 2 over kissimmee.

windy is showing the highest gusts on the GFS with the EURO a bit lower. They are showing about 70ish mph max gusts for beachside at windy, which is not quite a cat 2 level. My experience has been that windy usually calls it the best between gfs and euro, so it is possible that the cat 2 thing may be overcalled, but i still am prepping for that.


MILTON INTENSITY CHART

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 11:02 AM by paddleout

I hope the sheer gets to work on it soon. Will see what the update in a few minutes brings but the last few frames of IR satellite images look like it is back to cat 5 wind but with a larger eye than its last cat 5 presentation.

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...

The earlier scenarios talked about the reeaaally fortuitous arrival of an early cold front,
and the wind shear it brought with it
Notice that temp drop, rain, north winds?
Apparently that storm went from a depression bobbing around in the gulf to 185 mph
in under 24 hours....the new normal
What I just saw was a drop from 125 mph in Tampa to.....85 mph here.
We luck out this time? The season is young.
All will be revealed.
ps: climate change is a hoax

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It's a democratic hoax

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 05:14 PM by nukeh2o

speaking of shear, etc it's always a good idea to watch Dr. Levi Cowan's videos.
He's a PHD in Meteorology, really informative and has excellent no-nonsense daily videos on his site:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

been through many hurricanes watching his videos and his information is the best

5AM satellite image was perfect symmetry and cat 5 presentation. 7 AM showing asymmetry. Fingers crossed.

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...

Radar out of Key West showing erosion of the western eye wall and regional imagery showing frontagenic forcing with larger area of deep convection developing north of it and disrupting the inflow of hot saturated air on the back side. The transition appears to be occurring as forecast by GFS model.

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...

My old Army buddy in Missouri phrased it correctly:

Bend over, your gonna get it from behind this time!

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Dora Hates You

The number of rotating cells north and east of the main circulation is nuts. So many threats from a storm this large.

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...

The WFTV guy is saying that it will be CAT 2-ish when it gets to O'ville.

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Dora Hates You

Good radar link

The radar loop is laid over the forecast track!

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 10/09/2024 at 09:25 AM by dingpatch

I love the large rain storm in front of the truly massive rain storm. The named low that formed in front of the other two just adds more icing to the cake.

Yes, the weather these days in completely normal.

At least we aren't alone when it comes to oddball weather.


http://apnews.com/article/saha...7a0ef370aff60775d0245d

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I was right.

I'm just here for the 2024 Looty pics ??

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Looty! YES!!!!!!

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Dora Hates You

Quick post before I lose power
Looks like a Cat 3 hitting Anna Maria Island / Longboat Key we should see a cat 1ish
What Beachside Brevard is getting now is like 75% of it according to Windy

Gusts should reach about 60mph overnight into the AM - right now its gusting about 45.

should be bearable as long as you manage to get lucky and avoid any tornadoes
hell of alot of water around though. ground is so saturated. that plus high wind equals downed trees, so hope for the best. should be messy for sure

7pm. eye just offshore

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER RAIN 72 70 94 NE22G46 29.50F
INVERNESS RAIN 70 70 100 NE28G39 29.53F
BROOKSVILLE HVY RAIN 72 71 97 NE39G69 29.39F FOG
CLEARWATER AIR HVY RAIN 70 68 94 NE24G51 29.24F
ST PETE CLEARW HVY RAIN 73 73 100 NE35G53 29.19F VSB 3/4
TAMPA INTL RAIN 73 73 100 NE22G39 29.26F FOG
TAMPA EXEC RAIN N/A N/A N/A NE23G41 29.29F
MACDILL AFB FOG N/A N/A N/A NE38G58 N/A VSB 3/8
PETER O KNIGHT N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
ST PETERSBURG HVY RAIN 78 77 96 NE48G66 29.14F VSB 1/2
SARASOTA RAIN 78 77 96 E41G59 28.94F FOG
VENICE N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 28.74F

STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CLEARWATER BEACH 72 80 40/ 27/ 43 990.1
MIDDLE TAMPA BAY 76 80/ 38/ 47 986.1
VENICE 78 83 140/ 52/ 63 982.3F

$$
FLZ066-069-070-075>078-162-262-165-265-100000-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA LGT RAIN 80 77 90 S41G66 29.19F FOG
FT MYERS LGT RAIN 79 76 90 MISG 29.26F FOG
SOUTHWEST INTL N/A N/A N/A N/A S39G60 29.32F
IMMOKALEE N/A N/A N/A N/A S22G43 29.40S FOG
MARATHON CLOUDY 83 78 85 SW16G36 29.62R
KEY WEST NAS MOCLDY 87 78 74 SW36G46 29.63R HX 100
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 84 76 76 SW32G49 29.63R

Cocoa Beach got hit by a tornado this afternoon. Wednesday. Also, I was listening to the Wx radio and they said landing in Cape Holly as well. My friend in Tampa sent me a text around 5pm saying they haven't lost power yet. 7pm now no reply from text.

8pm

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER RAIN 70 68 94 NE25G40 29.47F
INVERNESS RAIN 70 70 100 NE24G43 29.47F
BROOKSVILLE HVY RAIN 70 70 100 NE35G63 29.35F FOG
CLEARWATER AIR HVY RAIN 70 68 94 NE26G54 29.13F
ST PETE CLEARW HVY RAIN 72 72 100 NE40G69 29.10F VSB 1/2
TAMPA INTL HVY RAIN 73 72 96 NE30G53 29.19F FOG
TAMPA EXEC HVY RAIN N/A N/A N/A NE24G37 29.21F
MACDILL AFB FOG N/A N/A N/A NE41G52 N/A VSB 3/8
PETER O KNIGHT N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
ST PETERSBURG HVY RAIN 76 75 97 NE54G77 28.93F VSB 1/4
SARASOTA RAIN 77 75 93 E53G93 28.42F FOG
VENICE NOT AVBL

STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CLEARWATER BEACH 73 79 40/ 38/ 55 988.0F
MIDDLE TAMPA BAY 76 70/ 52/ 67 N/A
VENICE 79 83 140/ 62/ 74 972.2F

$$
FLZ066-069-070-075>078-162-262-165-265-100100-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA CLOUDY 81 75 82 S51G79 29.08F HAZE
FT MYERS LGT RAIN 79 73 82 MISG 29.24F
SOUTHWEST INTL CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A S36G53 29.30F
IMMOKALEE N/A N/A N/A N/A S20G39 29.40S FOG
MARATHON CLOUDY 84 76 76 SW20G36 29.64R
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 83 75 77 W28G39 29.66R

Still have power.

Now that we are on the dry side, not nearly as much rain. Wind isn't bad at all- but should be ramping up before long.
Good news is the latest (8pm) NOAA cone image has it downgraded to a tropical storm off the east coast now- still a cat1 inland


Edited: 10/10/2024 at 07:13 AM by paddleout

From Tampa 10:30, wind rain power still on.

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Tampa airport 8:00 showing gusts in 50s. Next update at 9.

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power still on here..

latest NOAA chart has it back to a Cat2 inland..

4am Tampa, done there, power out. Daytona seems to be getting hammered, Melbourne less so looking at airport wind readings. Any Melbeach report?

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That was fun! Not. I can't imagine how bad everywhere else go hit. My yard is trashed, trees down. No flooding luckily. I slept thru most of it but got up at 5am and the eye was just to the North of me so I was getting intense West winds. Now at 7:45 strong NW winds. Bye Bye Milton. Waiting to hear from friends over in Tampa.

Mel Beach not bad. Had power all night, it went out for a minute or two around 230am then came back on.

Gusts maxed out around 60ish- saw one print on a wunderground weather station nearby.
I went in the backyard around 3am during the worst part to check on a tree I was worried could come down on the pool enclosure.

It was definitely getting worked hard -scary to watch but it was holding. then wind went west and started to calm so i crashed.
guess that west wind finished the job- tree still standing but a huge branch came down and flew just west enough to miss the enclosure and the house.
got lucky on that one!
everything else looks good.

Thursday Noon: Surf looks maxed out with super strong offshore winds right now in satbe. A few people out. saw a couple rides on the cams. If only I was younger!

Cocoa Beach must have been the bullseye. Sunrise was quite the spectacle. My house was humming like a hive of bees for about three hours. We are okay, but a neighbor has another neighbor's porch on his house.

As I've often said before, I hate these effin things.

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I was right.

These are Milton's strongest winds and highest rain totals so far
Milton plowed through Florida Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, leaving significant damage and flooding in its wake.
Here are the storm's most significant reports:
Wind gusts (highest occurred Wednesday night):
Egmont Channel (marine observation near mouth of Tampa Bay): 105 mph
Sarasota Bradenton International Airport: 102 mph
St. Petersburg (Albert Whitted Airport): 101 mph
Tampa: 97 mph
Bradenton: 96 mph
Rain (Wednesday to Thursday morning):
St. Petersburg (Albert Whitted Airport): 18.54 inches
Temple Terrace: 15.66 inches
Zephyrhills: 14.13 inches
Baskin: 13.08 inches
Clearwater: 12.52 inches

Here are some estimates from our week of rainy weather. Brevard got soaked. KSC had gusts to 85.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-r...el-rainfall-last-7days

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I was right.

Edited: 10/11/2024 at 08:08 AM by Cole

The Cocoa Beach golf course is more wetland than course. The concrete poles for the range nets look like they exploded. The alligators looked happy and there are balls allover that were shaken free from the trees.

Up the road, the waves look kinda fun. 3 to 4 with a little bump from the wind, but the north angle is keeping the faces open.

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I was right.

Edited: 10/12/2024 at 09:48 AM by Cole

Dead calm in S Brevard from 4 AM until 6:15 AM, palm frond damage!

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18; Ecl. 10-2 (Moderated)

It was apparently raining down construction debris dumpsters ,just south of us ----those Fuckers weigh just about a Ton or perhaps even more , now imagine this was lifted off of ground level and deposited on your ROOF , kind of hard to wrap your mind around that One .

Edited: 10/13/2024 at 02:05 AM by JOESTRUMMER

My well-drained yard in Vero had water creeping up into the back yard and filling the street, briefly. At least 7 inches of rain. Peak gust 84 at the airport. It and Piper seem to have suffered no major problems. In St Lucie County, a tornado brought down the roof of the building housing the sheriff's department's emergency vehicles. Apparently they managed to extricate some. My Latania palm (about the same size and color as a blue Bismarckia) is sheltered by oaks. No damage.

Lots of bamboo planted as wind deflectors!

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18; Ecl. 10-2 (Moderated)

I'm helping look after a neighbors' yard. Bamboo on the neighbor's property. Wind-blown leaves by the bushel. The tornado damage along A1A in Vero is shocking. Reminds me of Andrew south of Miami. Live oaks torn to pieces.

Edited: 10/15/2024 at 08:39 PM by ww

After Andrew for a large radius there was nothing standing above housetop level, including most of the concrete light poles, the big ones!!

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18; Ecl. 10-2 (Moderated)

ww comments had me looking for video of Vero Tornado damage. Wow!

Next...sorry



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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

Edited: 10/20/2024 at 05:57 AM by SurfCaster

What was your source Dave? Implies a Cat 2 at landfall which I believe has insurance implications



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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

Source was NWS Melbourne