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Topic Title: Caribbean Tropical Development Topic Summary: Late October storm Created On: 10/16/2020 04:05 AM |
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch |
- mp2115 | - 10/16/2020 04:05 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 10/16/2020 07:39 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 10/16/2020 07:41 AM |
- mp2115 | - 10/16/2020 08:21 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 10/16/2020 01:10 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 10/17/2020 05:27 AM |
- mp2115 | - 10/23/2020 05:34 AM |
- mp2115 | - 10/23/2020 10:51 AM |
- dingpatch | - 10/24/2020 11:44 AM |
- ww | - 10/24/2020 12:40 PM |
- ww | - 10/25/2020 09:05 AM |
- Cole | - 10/26/2020 07:33 AM |
- SurferMic | - 10/26/2020 08:55 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/26/2020 09:05 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/26/2020 09:48 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/26/2020 04:35 PM |
- dingpatch | - 10/28/2020 04:22 PM |
- surferclimber | - 10/28/2020 08:49 PM |
- Cole | - 10/29/2020 05:17 AM |
- mp2115 | - 10/29/2020 06:26 AM |
- dingpatch | - 10/29/2020 08:17 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/31/2020 05:51 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/31/2020 06:00 AM |
- dingpatch | - 10/31/2020 08:52 AM |
- Plan B | - 10/31/2020 10:03 AM |
- dingpatch | - 10/31/2020 02:36 PM |
- Plan B | - 11/02/2020 07:47 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/02/2020 08:11 AM |
- dingpatch | - 11/02/2020 09:53 AM |
- Cole | - 11/02/2020 10:02 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/02/2020 10:51 AM |
- dingpatch | - 11/02/2020 11:35 AM |
- LaJune | - 11/02/2020 01:15 PM |
- Plan B | - 11/02/2020 04:46 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/02/2020 05:47 PM |
- jdbman | - 11/02/2020 07:44 PM |
- ww | - 11/02/2020 10:31 PM |
- Cole | - 11/03/2020 04:46 AM |
- GREG | - 11/03/2020 07:45 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/03/2020 08:40 AM |
- kreidel | - 11/03/2020 08:43 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/03/2020 08:52 AM |
- equipeola | - 11/03/2020 11:10 AM |
- johnnyboy | - 11/03/2020 02:31 PM |
- seaspray | - 11/03/2020 04:30 PM |
- Cole | - 11/04/2020 04:22 AM |
- TATTOO74 | - 11/04/2020 05:25 AM |
- Cole | - 11/04/2020 05:34 AM |
- TATTOO74 | - 11/04/2020 05:39 AM |
- ww | - 11/04/2020 11:23 AM |
- mp2115 | - 11/04/2020 11:55 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/04/2020 12:45 PM |
- SurferMic | - 11/04/2020 01:59 PM |
- Plan B | - 11/06/2020 06:35 AM |
- Cole | - 11/06/2020 07:05 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/06/2020 07:08 AM |
- mp2115 | - 11/06/2020 11:22 AM |
- dingpatch | - 11/07/2020 07:21 AM |
- Cole | - 11/07/2020 11:08 AM |
- dingpatch | - 11/07/2020 03:06 PM |
- ww | - 11/07/2020 08:40 PM |
- SurferMic | - 11/08/2020 03:48 PM |
- Plan B | - 11/09/2020 05:12 AM |
- Cole | - 11/05/2020 06:20 AM |
- johnnyboy | - 11/08/2020 09:12 PM |
- Greensleeves | - 11/09/2020 05:51 AM |
- Cole | - 11/09/2020 07:10 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/09/2020 07:22 AM |
- Cole | - 11/09/2020 08:35 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/09/2020 08:36 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/09/2020 01:13 PM |
- SurferMic | - 11/09/2020 01:36 PM |
- Plan B | - 11/09/2020 02:12 PM |
- Cole | - 11/09/2020 07:35 PM |
- Dahui321 | - 11/10/2020 02:41 AM |
- jdbman | - 11/10/2020 04:01 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/10/2020 04:36 AM |
- Cole | - 11/10/2020 05:09 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/10/2020 06:13 AM |
- mp2115 | - 11/10/2020 07:09 AM |
- jdbman | - 11/10/2020 07:15 AM |
- Dahui321 | - 11/10/2020 09:31 AM |
- surfmcc32 | - 11/10/2020 10:21 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/10/2020 01:14 PM |
- Greensleeves | - 11/10/2020 01:33 PM |
- jdbman | - 11/10/2020 03:33 PM |
- Cole | - 11/10/2020 05:08 PM |
- Greensleeves | - 11/10/2020 09:08 PM |
- SurferMic | - 11/11/2020 03:04 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/11/2020 04:03 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/11/2020 04:11 AM |
- Cole | - 11/11/2020 04:34 AM |
- scombrid | - 11/11/2020 04:50 AM |
- dingpatch | - 11/11/2020 05:36 AM |
- Cole | - 11/11/2020 06:30 AM |
- tubeTime | - 11/11/2020 01:27 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/11/2020 05:54 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/15/2020 01:04 PM |
- Cole | - 11/15/2020 04:00 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/16/2020 05:07 AM |
- StirfryMcflurry | - 11/11/2020 05:45 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/16/2020 06:28 AM |
- Plan B | - 11/16/2020 07:32 AM |
- RiddleMe | - 11/16/2020 07:53 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/16/2020 08:38 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/16/2020 08:40 AM |
- Cole | - 11/16/2020 03:57 PM |
- ww | - 11/16/2020 07:01 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/17/2020 05:48 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/18/2020 02:13 PM |
- GREG | - 11/19/2020 07:40 AM |
Topic Tools
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10/16/2020 04:05 AM
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Model guidance has been consistent on tropical development south of Cuba within the next week or so.
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10/16/2020 07:39 AM
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speaking of which, while checking that long range, look at the spinny thing south of bermuda 10/21 10/22.
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10/16/2020 07:41 AM
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Hopefully the South-of-Cuba thingy moves up and gives us offshores for the Bermuda spinny thing. All theoretical at this point.
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10/16/2020 08:21 AM
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I agree, its all speculative now to what the models digest and put out. Even within three days out a lot can change. Offshores and waves would be nice.
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10/16/2020 01:10 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined. Additional development of this system is expected, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. |
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10/17/2020 05:27 AM
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long range models has that south blob moving over Florida. But, way out in time, so iffy.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Continued slow development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. |
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10/23/2020 05:34 AM
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Disturbance in the Caribbean still hanging around. NHC has it around 50% chance in next two days.
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10/23/2020 10:51 AM
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NHC bump it up to 70%
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10/24/2020 11:44 AM
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All-things-considered, , , , given what 2020 has already become, , , , I'd bet my lunch money that the area south of Cuba will develop, be named, and then go CAT3 into Lake Charles !! ?? !! ??
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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10/24/2020 12:40 PM
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Seems the really hot water is confined to the Caribbean. Gulf is mostly cooling off, so if it goes north, most likely a tropical storm. Looks like the hot season's about over. Now for the winter storm season.
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10/25/2020 09:05 AM
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Edited: 10/25/2020 at 09:19 AM by ww |
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10/26/2020 07:33 AM
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Those poor people.
This is the problem. http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm ------------------------- I was right. |
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10/26/2020 08:55 AM
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Edited: 11/10/2020 at 01:05 PM by SurferMic |
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10/26/2020 09:05 AM
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10/26/2020 09:48 AM
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Looks like winds wont be good on this one, due to its track, and the assymetrical nature of these low-end storms
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10/26/2020 04:35 PM
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actually latest GFS update has more favorable winds.... granted time frame for quality fetch/swell direction is limited, has more potential than earlier. Unfortunately I just got back from walgreens to buy a brace for my purple blob ankle..... which needs to heal up if the wacky LONG range models (grain of salt) hold somewhat true
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10/28/2020 04:22 PM
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And now, there is this off to the NE of Costa Rica:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend or early next week while it is nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg ------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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10/28/2020 08:49 PM
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Looks like a little swell over to our west coast for one more day... Can't believe we just had a boarderline cat 3 landfall this late in season, it is November in what 3 days right? will that make the storms stop for this year can the start of November put an end to this???????
------------------------- get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :) |
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10/29/2020 05:17 AM
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It the water doesn't cool, there is no reason they can't continue forever.
------------------------- I was right. |
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10/29/2020 06:26 AM
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10/29/2020 08:17 AM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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10/31/2020 05:51 AM
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The GFS has had a better run this season.... lets hope the EURO is right about this one....'cause this will suck
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10/31/2020 06:00 AM
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19' @ 10 sec.... GET OUT THERE!
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10/31/2020 08:52 AM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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10/31/2020 10:03 AM
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Cat 3 hitting the state in the Big Bend area?!
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10/31/2020 02:36 PM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/02/2020 07:47 AM
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24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
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11/02/2020 08:11 AM
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Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high. Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER |
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11/02/2020 09:53 AM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/02/2020 10:02 AM
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A Cat 4 is hitting Nicaragua in November? That's been awhile.
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/02/2020 10:51 AM
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Then turning BACK into a cat 3....
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11/02/2020 11:35 AM
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It could be a 5 just before landfall !!!!!!
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/02/2020 01:15 PM
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This is going to be catastrophic one. I can't recall the last time a hurricane that strong hit that far south. And it's going to be extremely slow moving so they are going to get worst case scenario on wind speed and flooding in a place that is ill equipped to take a hit like that.
------------------------- Heavy is sign of reliability |
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11/02/2020 04:46 PM
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11/02/2020 05:47 PM
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And, Tom Terry, WFTV, says that it could be another 10 days before we know if it's going to come our way.
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/02/2020 07:44 PM
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from Surfline:
"After Eta weakens, things get rather interesting, or at least more uncertain. There's pretty good agreement on the track of the storm through Thursday and decent agreement that the remnants will eventually recurve back into the northwest Caribbean. This area is home to some of the warmest water on the planet - if the circulation remains intact, Eta has a good chance to redevelop. And could become a serious threat to land again." ------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
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11/02/2020 10:31 PM
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Strong cat 4 at 10 pm. The European model is turning it back into a big storm in the Caribbean later on, GFS, not.
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11/03/2020 04:46 AM
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With any luck the cold fronts will act accordingly and sweep the thing away at high speed. Unfortunately, the only direction it can go is toward Florida.
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/03/2020 07:45 AM
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Reporting from Costa Rica. It has rained pretty consistently the last three days but nothing unusual. The only dumping rain was 3 nights ago. Today though there was a landslide on the hill between Jaco and Tarcoles so the highway is closed at the moment. There is some sizable surf, but disorganized with onshore winds.
------------------------- http://www.crsurf.com ~ CR Surf Travel Company http://www.vacationsbygreg.com Instagram - @crsurf |
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11/03/2020 08:40 AM
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11/03/2020 08:43 AM
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Wow, crazy times. I hope all will be safe from this one.
------------------------- |
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11/03/2020 08:52 AM
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Yes. we'll see what the latest EURO says... last night they were pretty close. By that forecast / that should be a high end TS / Low Cat 1 based on the surface pressure... just more drama for 2020.
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11/03/2020 11:10 AM
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Are you chitt'n me~~ Ya mean that deal could actually mess with us here this late??! figures
------------------------- ola ~ |
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11/03/2020 02:31 PM
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Magic seaweed has it over us on Sunday.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/03/2020 04:30 PM
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Waves this season have been terrible (unless you are in the Gulf). And now this, a parting gift from a terrible hurricane season for Fla east coast surfers
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11/04/2020 04:22 AM
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I just was looking at my hurricane relief AC in the garage and thinking about storing it away till next season. The storm coming our way might be my fault, in-part anyway. Sorry.
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/04/2020 05:25 AM
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I just saw last night how this thing is looping back around to S Fl. Has this ever happened before?
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11/04/2020 05:34 AM
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Out of Nica, into Honduras, thru Belize, into the Caribbean Sea, over Cuba, into the Straights of Florida, across the keys and then back into the gulf?
Louisiana again? ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/04/2020 05:39 AM
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^^ You forgot over the woods and through Grandmas house!
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11/04/2020 11:23 AM
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Windy has contrasting GFS and European versions of Eta, going west Florida or hitting Miami. Very different wind consequences. The European version has it doing an eventual landfall west of Tallahassee.
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11/04/2020 11:55 AM
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Windshield wiper effect until what ever is left of Eta gets back over the warm waters of the Caribbean will the track be more consistent. Guessing by the latest guidance the 4 o'clock update "the cone of uncertainty" could be more east of bit.
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11/04/2020 12:45 PM
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The noon updates have both pretty well in-sync aside from being a few degrees apart.... looks like a bit of a shit-show for next week.
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11/04/2020 01:59 PM
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.
Edited: 11/10/2020 at 01:06 PM by SurferMic |
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11/06/2020 06:35 AM
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11/06/2020 07:05 AM
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Spaghetti model or Pollock Painting?
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/06/2020 07:08 AM
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I'm partial to Jackson Pollock..... was never a fan of that weird "silly string" spray string stuff
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11/06/2020 11:22 AM
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Hurricane Hunters out there now investigating to see what potential track and intensity lies in the next couple days.
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11/07/2020 07:21 AM
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Eta is a Tropical Storm again and has "reformed" to the NE of where it was expected to be. Now, it looks like Miami on Monday morning, and then across to Marco Island by Monday night.
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/07/2020 11:08 AM
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Look at this wacky thing.
Nothing to shift Eta, so Eta goes for a walkabout in the gulf. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.go...icwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Edit: Forgot link. ------------------------- I was right. Edited: 11/07/2020 at 11:11 AM by Cole |
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11/07/2020 03:06 PM
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Now, the 4 PM has it more South, into Key Largo and then glancing the Everglades and into The Gulf
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/07/2020 08:40 PM
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Edited: 11/07/2020 at 08:41 PM by ww |
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11/08/2020 03:48 PM
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.
Edited: 11/10/2020 at 01:07 PM by SurferMic |
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11/09/2020 05:12 AM
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That's a chunky one!
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11/05/2020 06:20 AM
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^^ You forgot over the woods and through Grandmas house! LOL, right! Louisiana needs to hook up with some of the New Orleans oungan to set the states juju straight. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/08/2020 09:12 PM
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Inside the inlet in palm beach county you can surf peanut island on days like this.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/09/2020 05:51 AM
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Panhandle going to git sum
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11/09/2020 07:10 AM
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I was contemplating Saturday somewhere over there, but the storm track is helter skelter, so....
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/09/2020 07:22 AM
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11/09/2020 08:35 AM
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The one spot in Ana Maria is an absolute blast at waist high and tubular at chest high. The conditions for it look spot on.
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/09/2020 08:36 AM
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Driving a few hours for waist high waves?
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11/09/2020 01:13 PM
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or a few more for....
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11/09/2020 01:36 PM
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.
Edited: 11/10/2020 at 01:07 PM by SurferMic |
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11/09/2020 02:12 PM
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Thanks. I think this gonna be the one this year
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11/09/2020 07:35 PM
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Driving a few hours for waist high waves? My hero days are long gone. It's about fun and adventure for me now. There was a spot we surfed in the 80"s I'd like to check, plus my son has never been there and he would love it. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/10/2020 02:41 AM
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Absolutely!!!! No problem driving to surf. Whats the alternative? Wind here is not going to turn for days/week.
Gas is under $2.
Edited: 11/10/2020 at 02:54 AM by Dahui321 |
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11/10/2020 04:01 AM
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"Overnight, the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has broken an all time record. Subtropical Storm #Theta has formed in the Central Atlantic making it the 29th named storm of the season. This breaks the old record set in 2005 with 28 named storms. Up next, Iota?"
------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
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11/10/2020 04:36 AM
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Edited: 11/10/2020 at 04:43 AM by Plan B |
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11/10/2020 05:09 AM
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Living in Cocoa beach, I've had enough bullshit chop for two lifetimes. I have no interest in the 200 yard paddle/3,000 duck-dives session that's out back right now.
I now have a ratio: If it's more work than fun I'm done. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/10/2020 06:13 AM
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fair enough.... kinda like if it's more driving than surfing, I'm done. 3' for the 1st hour drive.... 1' added for each extra hour
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11/10/2020 07:09 AM
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Another chance a tropical development end of the week /next week in the Caribbean.
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11/10/2020 07:15 AM
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Cocoa Beach is the reverse Nicaragua. Nica has 300 days a year of offshores. CB has over 300 days a year of onshores. Plus the bottom is f...ed. In the immortal words of Pete Dooley: "It was better back then...." However: I'm watching and waiting and hoping for the best.... Maybe its my new board curse. Thanks Bruce for another stellar wave riding vehicle. ------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. Edited: 11/10/2020 at 07:16 AM by jdbman |
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11/10/2020 09:31 AM
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11/10/2020 10:21 AM
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panhandle at head high with offshores is some of the funnest surf you'll find in Florida, looks worth it to me. I got skunked last storm though so I'm hesitant.
Edited: 11/10/2020 at 05:43 PM by surfmcc32 |
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11/10/2020 01:14 PM
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another feature popped up:
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. |
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11/10/2020 01:33 PM
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"Thanks Bruce for another stellar wave riding vehicle."
what you get jdb? |
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11/10/2020 03:33 PM
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9'6" QF. Its a remake of a board I got 20 years ago. Down the line LB with a rounded pin tail. ------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
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11/10/2020 05:08 PM
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Bruce is a magician.
Greenie, if Tom does step away, we can go talk with Bruce for your boards. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/10/2020 09:08 PM
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Interested Cole. Thanks. Jdb living the dream!
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11/11/2020 03:04 AM
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Not feeling this one...caused too many deaths as well in CA...Rocketsurf, I'll send you a text can't respond to PMs..Having way too much fun at a local wind sheltered break that has been real fun...headed out the door back down there now for a pre-work session...Good luck guys!
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11/11/2020 04:03 AM
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well..... radical change in forecast this morning Yeah Mic, I went down to the beach by my house before dark last night..... normally a mushball wave. Wind was fairly lt due east, and waves were THUMPING.
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11/11/2020 04:11 AM
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11/11/2020 04:34 AM
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What the fluff? How did it get back there already? I was keeping tabs on it for work yesterday and it was over Mexico way.
------------------------- I was right. |
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11/11/2020 04:50 AM
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Wind sheer collapsed the convection over the center. A new center formed under deep convection that was well east of the center. Kind of like it teleported.
------------------------- ... |
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11/11/2020 05:36 AM
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...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
7:35 AM EST Wed Nov 11 Location: 25.8°N 83.8°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 983 mb Max sustained: 75 mph ------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/11/2020 06:30 AM
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Wind sheer collapsed the convection over the center. A new center formed under deep convection that was well east of the center. Kind of like it teleported. I'd say that was pretty cool if it wasn't at our doorstep. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/11/2020 01:27 PM
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I liked the idea of a slow mover but a least the West side finally got some good-sized hurricane surf. Check out this thumper that Gulfster shared.
Thumping P |
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11/11/2020 05:54 PM
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Ummmm, , , , , Ahhhh, , , , didn't we just see this????
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/15/2020 01:04 PM
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Iota is forecast to hit as a CAT 4 !!
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/15/2020 04:00 PM
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Yes, this is perfectly normal for hurricane season.
"Hey, can we get another alphabet please!" And what do you know, another two weeks of 25 knot winds! OH JOY! ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/16/2020 05:07 AM
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Iota could get to CAT 5 before landfall
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/11/2020 05:45 AM
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Swamp gonna get a prunin'.
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11/16/2020 06:28 AM
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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops. 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America tonight. |
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11/16/2020 07:32 AM
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terrible news for those people.
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11/16/2020 07:53 AM
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This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern
Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 160mph winds and expected to strengthen slightly before landfall. They just got hammered by that Cat 4 too. Sucks Edited: 11/16/2020 at 07:54 AM by RiddleMe |
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11/16/2020 08:38 AM
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Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...IOTA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 82.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES |
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11/16/2020 08:40 AM
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Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days. |
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11/16/2020 03:57 PM
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Kick them hard when they are already down.
Unreal. ------------------------- I was right. |
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11/16/2020 07:01 PM
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Edited: 11/16/2020 at 08:12 PM by ww |
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11/17/2020 05:48 AM
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And, , , , , as of yesterday there was a chance of a system developing to the South that would go into Costa Rica !!!!!!
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/18/2020 02:13 PM
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Iota's devastation comes into focus in storm-weary Nicaragua
By CARLOS HERRERA 2 minutes ago https://apnews.com/article/teg...3e5f7792059a5909eb5811 |
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11/19/2020 07:40 AM
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I am raising money for a friend in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua who lost his roof. He also will share the proceeds with neighbors for food, clothing, and shelter.
GoFundMe - Hurricane Iota Relief ------------------------- http://www.crsurf.com ~ CR Surf Travel Company http://www.vacationsbygreg.com Instagram - @crsurf |
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