Hang 10... or as they now say...hit the lip!

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Topic Title: Caribbean Tropical Development
Topic Summary: Late October storm
Created On: 10/16/2020 04:05 AM
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 10/29/2020 08:17 AM
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dingpatch

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 10/31/2020 05:51 AM
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Plan B

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The GFS has had a better run this season.... lets hope the EURO is right about this one....'cause this will suck
 10/31/2020 06:00 AM
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Plan B

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19' @ 10 sec.... GET OUT THERE!
 10/31/2020 08:52 AM
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dingpatch

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 10/31/2020 10:03 AM
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Plan B

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Cat 3 hitting the state in the Big Bend area?!
 10/31/2020 02:36 PM
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dingpatch

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 11/02/2020 07:47 AM
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Plan B

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24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
Although Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high.
Eta James about to get angry......
 11/02/2020 08:11 AM
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Central Floridave

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Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to
undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery
reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in
infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery
and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this
morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight-
level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt.
The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass
through the center. With the continued improvement in organization
since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased
to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to
allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the
intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4
hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall,
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
terrain of Central America.

The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little
slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the
south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn
west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the
center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn
westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track
guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but
the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although
Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over
Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a
cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into
the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's
remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging
over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the
uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite
high.

Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and
additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage
is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations
should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,
along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning
area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
 11/02/2020 09:53 AM
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dingpatch

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 11/02/2020 10:02 AM
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Cole

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A Cat 4 is hitting Nicaragua in November? That's been awhile.
 11/02/2020 10:51 AM
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Plan B

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Then turning BACK into a cat 3....
 11/02/2020 11:35 AM
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dingpatch

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It could be a 5 just before landfall !!!!!!
 11/02/2020 01:15 PM
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LaJune

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This is going to be catastrophic one. I can't recall the last time a hurricane that strong hit that far south. And it's going to be extremely slow moving so they are going to get worst case scenario on wind speed and flooding in a place that is ill equipped to take a hit like that.

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Heavy is sign of reliability
 11/02/2020 04:46 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: LaJune This is going to be catastrophic one. I can't recall the last time a hurricane that strong hit that far south. And it's going to be extremely slow moving so they are going to get worst case scenario on wind speed and flooding in a place that is ill equipped to take a hit like that.
Hurricane Mitch? This beast is up to 150...... Impoverished area and geographically exacerbated flash flooding. this it terrible.
 11/02/2020 05:47 PM
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dingpatch

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And, Tom Terry, WFTV, says that it could be another 10 days before we know if it's going to come our way.
 11/02/2020 07:44 PM
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jdbman

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from Surfline:

"After Eta weakens, things get rather interesting, or at least more uncertain. There's pretty good agreement on the track of the storm through Thursday and decent agreement that the remnants will eventually recurve back into the northwest Caribbean. This area is home to some of the warmest water on the planet - if the circulation remains intact, Eta has a good chance to redevelop. And could become a serious threat to land again."

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.
 11/02/2020 10:31 PM
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ww

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Strong cat 4 at 10 pm. The European model is turning it back into a big storm in the Caribbean later on, GFS, not.
 11/03/2020 04:46 AM
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Cole

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With any luck the cold fronts will act accordingly and sweep the thing away at high speed. Unfortunately, the only direction it can go is toward Florida.
 11/03/2020 07:45 AM
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GREG

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Reporting from Costa Rica. It has rained pretty consistently the last three days but nothing unusual. The only dumping rain was 3 nights ago. Today though there was a landslide on the hill between Jaco and Tarcoles so the highway is closed at the moment. There is some sizable surf, but disorganized with onshore winds.

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Instagram - @crsurf
1% for the Planet Member
 11/03/2020 08:40 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: Cole With any luck the cold fronts will act accordingly and sweep the thing away at high speed. Unfortunately, the only direction it can go is toward Florida.
FORUMS : Surfing : Caribbean Tropical Development

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