Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 27 2022

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 25N90W. Another trough
prevails over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 21N between 92W-96W. Surface ridging is building
across the basin, with scatterometer data depicting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue building across
the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing
over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will
develop across the NW waters by early next week due to a pressure
gradient building in the area.

NWS-Melbourne discussion from last night.

Sun-Fri...Adequate moisture lingers over the area thru the extended
as deepening onshore flow takes over Sun night/early Mon lasting
well into the period. Still some continued uncertainty with medium
range models as the GFS remains hell-bent on developing a weak
tropical low well east of the central FL coast Wed night/Thu and a
stronger system over the FL Straits on Fri. For now, expect sea
breeze collisions across the central peninsula late Sun, then with a
deepening - more stable onshore flow, a higher threat for convection
at night and in the morning across the coast and an increasing
threat over the interior (WC FL) in the afternoon and early evening
periods. We keep the highest PoPs (50-60pct) south of Orlando once
again on Sun, then a 30-50pct average areawide the remainder of the
upcoming work-week, though at some point PoPs may have to be better
aligned showing highest chances inland once the models show some
better consistency. Also, the models do show some weak troughiness
aloft across the central peninsula near mid-week that could enhance
daily convection.