First day of school is today, Monday (Aug11). Football season nears as well. Gawd I love this time of year. Of course this latest blob on NHC discussion has caused an uproar on the long range tracking the past week. Between model runs it is bouncing all over the place and it is not even a named storm yet. But, that is gonna change.

We see this every time this year. One huge cape verde storm roars across that Atlantic and then the entire ocean blows it's lid and all of a sudden we have 4 or 5 named storms.

Bottom line, models of course are just that, models. Simulations on what is predicted by math models and such. We all know they are off in the long range but they seem to be getting better at predicting thru the years. This one that the NHC labels AL97 is gonna keep the surf forecasters on their toes and we lowly surfers guessing when it will hit.

For me, when I see a big spike in surf heights a week out, I up my pool lab count and get my house and yard in order for a possible hurricane strike. You don't want to be getting your belongings ready when it nears as you should be surfing. Just preaching to the choir.

... 'tis the season....Let's get this party started!


Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Edited: 08/11/2025 at 08:18 AM by Central Floridave