First day of school is today, Monday (Aug11). Football season nears as well. Gawd I love this time of year. Of course this latest blob on NHC discussion has caused an uproar on the long range tracking the past week. Between model runs it is bouncing all over the place and it is not even a named storm yet. But, that is gonna change.

We see this every time this year. One huge cape verde storm roars across that Atlantic and then the entire ocean blows it's lid and all of a sudden we have 4 or 5 named storms.

Bottom line, models of course are just that, models. Simulations on what is predicted by math models and such. We all know they are off in the long range but they seem to be getting better at predicting thru the years. This one that the NHC labels AL97 is gonna keep the surf forecasters on their toes and we lowly surfers guessing when it will hit.

For me, when I see a big spike in surf heights a week out, I up my pool lab count and get my house and yard in order for a possible hurricane strike. You don't want to be getting your belongings ready when it nears as you should be surfing. Just preaching to the choir.

... 'tis the season....Let's get this party started!


Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Edited: 08/11/2025 at 08:18 AM by Central Floridave

They named it for the 2pm today.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025

...TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2305 MI...3710 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening
is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025

The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde
Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small,
but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an
earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt suggesting the
convection is now sufficently organized to be classified as a
tropical cyclone. We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC
with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection,
with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also
well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge.
The combination of all this data suggests that a tropical storm has
formed, and NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Erin with
a current intensity of 40 kt.

Erin is moving quickly off to the west, with the motion estimated at
275/17 kt. Over the next few days, this motion should continue with
possibly some slight south-of-due-west motion. Erin's motion is
primarily influenced by an east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge
draped across the subtropical Atlantic basin. By the end of the
forecast period, this ridge may start to become more oriented to the
northeast of Erin, inducing a more poleward motion by 120 h. The
initial NHC track forecast elects to stick fairly close to the HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA), which is a touch on the south
side of the overall track guidance envelope. It should be noted that
spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to
increase markedly at the end of the forecast period.

The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. The
earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small
circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either
up or down. While vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to
be low, between 5-10 kt over the next 72 hours, sea-surface
temperatures are more marginal, around 26-27C, with a decent amount
of dry mid-level air along the path of the tropical storm. The first
NHC intensity forecast will thus only forecast slow intensification
in the short-term, assuming the marginal SSTs and lack of mid-level
moisture will keep the small vortex in check. After 48 h, however,
the SSTs start to gradually increase and should allow the local
environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification
will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance
in the short-term, partially due to the initial intensity, but is in
line with the HCCA intensity aid. By 120 h, the hurricane-regional
models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids
(EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will
be explicitly forecast at the end of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 17.4N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

I was a little confused on CVT being used, explaination:

CVT usually refers to Cape Verde Time, which is the time zone used in Cape Verde (an island country off the coast of West Africa).

Offset: CVT is UTC - 1 (1 hour behind Coordinated Universal Time).

No daylight saving time - CVT stays the same year-round.

Example: If it's 12:00 noon UTC, it's 11:00 AM CVT.

Cape Verde Time (CVT) is 4 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time (EST).

So:
2:00 PM CVT ? 10:00 AM EST

I'm ready to party! What's the guestimate on the swell showing up? Could we see waves even before the weekend?



I'd guess frontrunners should show up by Sat/Sun. I have not looked at wave models since FNMOC took their site away from the public.

virtual buoy shows 14-16 seconds on the 17th/18th. Of course subject to change! Looking at Erin right now looks borderllne T.S now. NHC must have named it to kick in the hype-R-drive.

Surfline and Surf-forecast, after backing down on the Erin Swell, have juiced it up with substantial wave energy. Monday-Tuesday.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Hatteras should start showing the swell over the weekend

The end of this rteaxk puts it North of PR and East of Ft Lauderdale. Looks like the 'sweet' spot, if it maintains 'major'.

Erin

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/11/2025 at 12:57 PM by dingpatch

going to be a fun wavemaker

Models this morning look a little-bit more west?

But still, looks to be a Major pumping straight at us for a dew days.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

A tropical storm is just a "rain with a name".

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

I like what I see on the recurving North of Puerto Rico and on the swell period models. NHC reports this morning that Erin is still a minimal tropical storm. Looks to stay that way as it moves West, then balloon up some NE of Puerto Rico, then recurve North. Knock on wood. Swimming a 1/4 mile today in the pool. Aug 18th maybe some 16 second forerunners...aka...close out city swell...then wait for the swell angle to flip from the NE later in the week. Knock on wood.

This looks to be a good swell maker and right now looks to stay offshore.

As a reminder, Tropical Tidbits has good detailed info on Atlantic storms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoHCwh0uyng

Pray for surf!


-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

Two days of eight foot closed out walls.

Let's hope the wind cooperates the 3 hours that it's good.

-------------------------
I was right.

There always has to be THAT guy....

I will update in real time to keep an accurate measure.

And yes, I hope I am wrong, but reality is on my side. If it's a Cat 1 or less, we are good. If it's a 2 or beyond, my prediction will be spot on. Way north Brevard? That might be a different story, but you better have your paddle arms prepared.



-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 08/14/2025 at 06:32 AM by Cole

There's only a few spots that can handle size: Monster Hole and Reef Road are two of them

^^^ This.

Ill be waiting for the back end of it

-------------------------


We have certain things in common Jeffrey..

Tues. afternoon, Surf-Forecast continues with wildly high wave energy for Rodanthe and S-Turns

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

South Florida boys. PM me and we can talk.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

Google Gemini Surf Forecast:

What is the surf forecast for Satellite Beach Florida?


Surf in Satellite Beach, Florida, is expected to be small over the next few days, with wave heights generally in the 1-2 foot range. Winds will be from the south and southeast, creating choppy to semi-clean conditions.

A significant change in the forecast is anticipated for the beginning of next week due to a developing tropical disturbance, likely Tropical Storm Erin. Models are showing this storm could generate well-overhead surf with a longer period (around 12 seconds) for early to mid-next week. However, the exact timing and size of the swell will depend on the storm's track.

Here is a more detailed breakdown:

Today (Wednesday, August 13): Waves are around 1-2 feet.

Thursday, August 14 - Saturday, August 16: Surf is expected to drop off to around 1 foot.

Sunday, August 17: There is a possibility of a small swell showing up later in the day, with waves potentially reaching 1-3 feet.

Next Week: The most significant surf is forecast for the beginning of next week, with some models calling for well-overhead waves.

As always, surf conditions can change, and it is best to check a local surf report or buoy data for the most up-to-the-minute information. Given the potential for a tropical system to impact the area, surfers should monitor the National Hurricane Center and local weather advisories closely.

Swam 1/4 mile yesterday and now stepping it up to 1/2 mile a day swim for the next couple of days. Maybe some surf this weekend (knock on wood) but the juice looks to arrive next week. period swell models pushed back to late Monday/Tuesday for forerunners.

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Erin continues to have a ragged overall appearance, with one burst
of convection just southwest of the center and skeletal convective
bands elsewhere in the northwestern semicircle. Various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-45 kt
range, and these have changed little over the past several hours.
A just-received scatterometer overpass shows winds near 40 kt just
north of the center, and based on these data the initial intensity
is held at 40 kt.

Erin continues to struggle to intensify, likely due to its track
over persistent sea surface temperatures of 26-27C and entrainment
of dry and stable air. The forecast track keeps the system over
these marginal SSTs for another 24 h or so, followed by a motion
over increasing SSTs that reach 29-30C by the end of the forecast
period. The cyclone is currently in a favorable low- to
moderate-shear environment, and this is likely to continue for the
next 72 h. This evolution should allow Erin to significantly
intensify, with the cyclone forecast to become a hurricane by 48 h
and a major hurricane by 96 hr. After 72-96 h, Erin may encounter
increased northerly shear as it tracks to the northeast of a
large upper-level anticyclone forecast to form near Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas. Although the strength of shear the cyclone
will encounter is uncertain, the intensity guidance suggests a lower
rate of intensification at that time. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast and is in best agreement
with the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now 265/15 kt. While a strong low- to
mid-level ridge currently is situated to the north of Erin, in a day
or two a slight weakness is forecast to develop in this ridge near
65W longitude. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
west-northwestward after 24 h, with some decrease in forward speed
after 72 h. After 96 h, a developing break in the ridge near the
southeastern coast of the United States should lead to a
northwestward motion. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement, and the official forecast on the southern side of the
guidance envelope between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other
consensus models. The new track is similar to the previous track
through 72 h and a little west of the previous track thereafter.
Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of
150 to 215 miles at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments to the
forecast are still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 16.3N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.2N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.0N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.9N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.7N 64.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 23.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

The waiting is the hardest part...

>>>> Speaking to Newsweek, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, senior scientist in ocean modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: "The latest forecast does indeed indicate that the largest significant wave height could reach values in excess of 50 feet with an associated most likely largest wave of more than 100 feet."

That's...absurd. Of course, 100-footers aren't going to be hitting New Smyrna Beach, up to the Outer Banks, and beyond. But there will be swell, that's for sure. <<<<

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

That paddle at monster hole stays with you. Same with the many men in the gray suits that pop by early and often.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Agreed that if it is a cat 2+ and a few hundred miles out there will be times of massive 500 yard close outs at most of our popular spots.
But there should be windows when it is good, like when the first swells hit....or after it has passed to our north and we get the favorable angle and maybe good winds.

The 20 mile spectral density chart is a fav indicator. When the frequency gets less than .1 Hz, and the graph cleans up into a single defined peak...that can be some really good surf.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show...=41009&meas=spec&uom=E

If you surf, you gotta be an optimist!


-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

I don't think I'll ever surf monster hole again but I did surf it tons in the 80s/90s when I was much younger and in great shape. I'd pay you 5 bucks now for a sea-doo to out and even more important IN.

Wow, there were times trying to paddle in was way harder than out.

I'm really looking forward to next week's swell. Good or bad, close out or not. Last week's swell was a good warm up 4me. I put a ding in my board, gotta fix that.

The waiting is....the hardest part....

marine forecast coming in focus for next week. Local wind forecast is of course not accurate, but mucky winds forecast for now. There are small waves today (Friday) 1-2 feet. Looks longboardable.

SUNDAY
Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave Detail: East 2 feet at 9 seconds.

MONDAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


TUESDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

GFS has stiff NNE winds Tuesday and Wednesday during the peak.
It's also predicting a major storm hitting just north of the cape following week, around the 28th.

Edited: 08/15/2025 at 09:31 AM by 3rdworldlover

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The
last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the
cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air
Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt
northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery
shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently
received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of
shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin
becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend.
Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a
weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the
forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually
turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains
in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time,
there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track
spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models
again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the
GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although
still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly
since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of
the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening,
although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is
entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure
indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the
first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster
development rate. After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to
encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should
at least slow development. However, the global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a
powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted
that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast,
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than
currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Why is the wind ripping out of the North East if the storm is too far out to influence our weather?

-------------------------
I was right.

A high pressure frontal boundary pushes off the SE coast, keeping the storm from hitting us.
You can thank the democrat weather control machines and chemtrails

For cat 5 hurricane floyd the 120 mile buoy read 56 feet before it got ripped off it's mooring.

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin is rapidly strengthening and is now a category 3 major
hurricane. Satellite images indicate that Erin has a small eye and a
compact and symmetric inner core. The hurricane has also been
maintaining a large area of deep convection to the southwest of the
core, and those outer rainbands are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters departed Erin a few hours
ago, but on their last couple of passes through the center, the
minimum pressure was steadily falling. Since the structure of the
system has notably improved over the past few hours, the initial
intensity is increased to 105 kt, and that could be conservative.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Erin again later this morning, and that wealth of data will be very
helpful in evaluating the cyclone's intensity and structure.

The system continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This overall
motion should continue through the weekend, taking the core of Erin
to the north of the eastern Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After
that time, the western side of the ridge is expected to weaken, due
to a series of shortwave troughs, and that should cause Erin to slow
down and make a gradual turn to the north. The models agree on this
general theme, but there are some differences on where, when, and
how sharply Erin makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is
a touch to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Confidence continues to increase
that the core of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas and the
United States.

Erin is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next 12
hours while it remains in favorable conditions of warm water, low
wind shear, and in an environment of high moisture. Erin will likely
become a Category 4 hurricane later today and strengthening could
continue through tonight. By early next week, however, an increase
in shear should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance for
the first 24 to 36 hours, and then falls near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands
are possible in portions of the the northern Leeward Islands
later today and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents
along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the
U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.8N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$

Long term forecasting is getting odd. GFS and Euro entirely disagree around the 27th; Windy at 10 am Sat is showing a big hurricane hitting Houston. Pretty sure that's not exactly what will happen

Surfline seems to be expecting an Atlantic hurricane, to judge from E wind, not too far offshore, and whopping wave energy on the 27th..

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

From Central Florida Hurricane: Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).

It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.

This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/16/2025 at 08:30 AM by dingpatch

Gonna need some CAT 5 wax!

But, I fly to Nashville Tuesday afternoon

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

11 am from the NHC has forecast for cat 5 status.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Dang, that escalated quickly....

-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

Rapid intensification is the new norm it seems

Looking at Windy, the long-term models for Aug 26-30 remain weird. GFS moved its post-Erin hurricane from the Panhandle, west to Houston, then back to Panhandle and now in the Atlantic, going ashore near Wilmington NC.

ECMWF instead has an earlier storm farther out in the Atlantic 23rd to hitting Halifax, Nova Scotia on the 27th. Perhaps the two models will be in greater agreement in a few days.

Sunday AM, Erin has been visible on San Juan radar and wind is down, eyewall replacement. General track remains the same.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

I've read that 100 foot waves/swells aren't uncommon in the large storms. We just don't have an accurate way of measuring them. There needs to be a transducer on the ocean floor to get an accurate reading, but getting it in the right place is nearly impossible.

If it remains a Cat 5 through our window, I will upgrade my prediction to 12 foot closed out walls with the Satellite Beach walkways taking another beating.

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I was right.

Erin might already be past its max winds. Windy's GFS animation has already moved the late Aug landfall west to Louisiana. Quite a jump.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Yeah, as far as the next one after Erin, GFS has it beaning New Orleans on 8/28 while the Euro has it turning north in the Atlantic and dissipating

quite a disparity.. one to watch for sure

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We have certain things in common Jeffrey..

The waiting is the hardest part! Meanwhile, check this one on sunday eve. INCOMMING...

Station 41047 - NE BAHAMAS - 350 NM ENE of Nassau, Bahamas

7 feet 13 seconds. ESE.

Well this is fugly..

GFS Wed 8/27

Euro has it out to sea, so let's hope the GFS starts to conform to the Euro




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We have certain things in common Jeffrey..

As of late Sunday night, the GFS shows a perfect horror of the next storm going ashore at Miami then raking the entire east coast, even up to Maine. That, after the Outer Banks get a lot of damage and possibly even a new inlet from Erin. Mandatory evacuation.

Monday morning, GFS has moved the late-Aug hurricane to the Bahamas.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Edited: 08/18/2025 at 05:22 AM by Wavewatcher

....10 days out..........lol

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Station 41047, aka the Bahamas buoy - 15.4 at 14 seconds

The walls are a comin.

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I was right.

Nice catch Captain Obvious. Now point out we're on the internet too LOL


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We have certain things in common Jeffrey..


Edited: 08/18/2025 at 05:39 PM by fishkller

wowsa, 16 feet at 14 seconds....3rd reef pipe will be breaking.

The party has commenced! 3ft @ 12 sec on the 20m. It started yesterday though. 4-5ft sneaker sets were showing up in the afternoon in Cocoa Beach.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

it's wierd, the nearshore buoy already shows 14 seconds from the ESE this Monday morning, yet the 20 mile buoy doesn't. That buoy's algorhythm must be filtering it out. But, it's coming.

Monday morning marine forecast and looking at local winds:

REST OF TODAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave Detail: East 3 feet at 14 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds.

TUESDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave Detail: East 7 feet at 16 seconds.

WEDNESDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet. Wave Detail: East 10 feet at 15 seconds and east 6 feet at 7 seconds.

THURSDAY
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet.

FRIDAY
Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.

thnks. going out soon this monday morning. Looks glassy still for now, but that's gonna change.

Mid morn Munday near Highcrowder some chest plus sets with shoulders, the larger ones were pretty walled out. Managed to get a few, blind squirrel strategy. Wind was initially light onshore, was cranking up when i left around 1pm. Lotsa turtles. Nice warm up sesh, but prob will be watching from the beach for a few days...

4 feet 13 ticks East swell on 20 miler 2pm Monday. It's all chopped out this afternoon though.

Surf at 2ndlight this morning was barely rideble. 2-3 feet and glassy. Hoping we get a glass off the next few mornings. But, whatev, back in it. Warm up sesh for sure. Hope the cane season party last thru November. Also, hoping they all stay offshore.

Mandatory evacuation of Hatteras? Sheesh. https://www.darenc.gov/Home/Co...ents/News/News/9169/17

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The road from Buxton to Rodanthe and even north of there has become increasingly tenuous, despite the bridge at the last temporary inlet. Erin is projected

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

"Although the season's first Atlantic hurricane is expected to stay offshore, evacuations were ordered on barrier islands along the Carolina coast as authorities warned the storm could churn up dangerous rip currents." The fascist government officials are out of control! People now are evacuated because of dangerous rip currents? Why? Can you imagine if everytime there were "dangerous rip currents" tourits and locals would have to evacuate

^Too many tourists to support when 12 washes out. And the you've got to ferry them off. Locals aren't going anywhere, same as always.

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I think in Dare county, mandatory evac closes all short term/vacation rentals. Private residence are as 3rd says, same as here.

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The evacuation order is for Hatteras and Ocracoke, not for anywhere farther north. Part of the concern is that Erin has become an enormous storm. Surfline had a comment on its total energy--a measure that I think meteorologists use fairly often to compare storms. The deal is that a vast but relatively low-wind storm can be far larger in energy terms than a small but intense one. Charley of 2004 was a specimen of that.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Thanks Obama!

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We have certain things in common Jeffrey..

Swell is coming in along with the wind. Solid shoulder high with push behind it. Bummer that the tide is high and making it break close to shore in a lot of places. PAFB was rideable with 1 or 2 snap to backwash/closeout.

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Time and tide wait for no one.....

Some squeezed through the bahamas and we got overhead surf in palm beach county this evening

Thursday ??????

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Think and seek and you shall find.....

RE: the storm after Erin , the GFS model has now moved closer to the Euro, and more out to sea- neither one shows landfall now, so... nice.

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We have certain things in common Jeffrey..

Now there's one behind the one behind Erin.

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This is when I visit the Kiddie Pool

Tuesday: 20 mile buoy 10 feet 16 seconds. Onshore winds Tuesday. Day of rest for me. I watched a jettypark cam for a little bit. It's big up there as well and bad form/shape. But, it's big!

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm
238 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

TODAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, building to 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave Detail: East 6 feet at 16 seconds, becoming east 7 feet at 16 seconds this afternoon. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.


WEDNESDAY
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet, occasionally to 15 feet. Wave Detail: East 10 feet at 15 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

THURSDAY
West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 9 feet at 13 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.


FRIDAY
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.

SATURDAY
West winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday afternoon, 20 mile buoy 10 feet 16 seconds! Give or take in size. Wind howling from the N to NE. Chopped out.

Blown out and small for now. Last night Palm Beach got the slot.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

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Dora Hates You

Mandatory evacuation only applies to a specific portion of the outer banks that's expected to experience storm surge and large swells causing overwash and road flooding and damage making it inaccessible to emergency responders. You can stay if you want but don't call 911.

Heard Cherie Down was on point this morning

Pictures?

I was calling for Jetty Park, personally

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hey, i don't know if you read this yet ----------> I <3 16streets.com

thank you Sean O'hare

Delicious beer comes from here

Currituck County, NC has (late in the game) ordered evacuation of the four-wheel-drive access beach area around Corolla, north of Dare County.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

A friend just sent a pic of jetty park, looks fun but not very significant swell.

This evening, high tide, Vero South Beach was doing its classic glassy close-out shorebreak. Not very big, but capable of squishing.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

NOW the party starts!

THURSDAY
West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 7 feet at 12 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

FRIDAY
West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 5 feet at 12 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

SATURDAY
West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 feet at 13 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

SUNDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

MONDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

It looks like good conditions are moving southward.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

41009: WSW@10, 8ft, 11sec, 6am.

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Here is our four hours.



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I was right.

Looks fun. Head high plus with a northerly tilt. Wind is puffing from the West.

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I was right.

I'm too old for four hours in summertime heat. Long, long rides.

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I was right.

That was worth waiting for, im absolutely spent. So many peeling glassy peaks. Looking fwd to rinse and repeat fri. Nice drone pic paddleout! ESM material?

I never noticed that Norfolk Island pine.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Surfed a spot just too the south, what a great day! Surf vacation in the back yard.

Dang, nice pic! Kinda makes you remember why we live here.

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The pic isn't mine, I believe Catalyst posted that on their Instagram or something.


It was shore slam city tonight at sunset. big walls crashing down hard into like a foot of sand. high tide.

So yesterday as Erin transitioned from tropical to non-tropical the wind fields were spectacular. Consequently the south Hatteras buoy graph shows 15 m^2/Hz at 15, 13, and 12 seconds this morning with energy at 14. Area under the curve says that's a lot of juice with a NNE direction. Today should be interesting.

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...

Interesting stuff for sure. I've never seen any tropical system provide this much swell when it's on a northern trajectory. The swell period is increasing, too. Five feet at 15 seconds. We have moved into numbers more common in the Pacific.



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I was right.

Hurricane Dennis in 1999 had a sorta similar path and it was the gift that just kept giving.
i wanna say I surfed for 7+ straight days and it was fantastic. The North tilt of the swell gave us some great lefts.



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If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

Gordon was another one.

We happened to be sitting in the line-up at the Light when the swell refreshed. There were some of the longest rides I've ever had in Florida; from the flag pole to the second walkway without a single piece of water out of place.

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I was right.

Went out this am in sat be not great lotsa morning sickness. My 11 year old had a blast tho, so idgaf

Got good in the streets after the storms passed, right around low. A bit of a wait between sets. A little smaller and mellower but more fun than the closeout session in satellite this morning.

It dropped like the proverbial rock before dark. We got cleaned on the outside during the paddle out, then ended up catching the shore break as the sun set.



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I was right.

Edited: 08/24/2025 at 07:35 AM by Cole

Canova dp strong sideshore winds chopping it up. canova still hollow as fuck

I think the sensor on the buoy is jammed. There ain't no way it's 5.6 at 13.

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I was right.

More surf this Friday! Get it.

Big long left bombs this morn, super fun.

Different swell angle in the hood today. It's the same size but less makeable.

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I was right.

Fair amount of closeouts in the overhead range. Found a great shoulder that opened up and would have gotten a hollow stand up tube if I had the presence of mind to stall instead of racing ahead of what I thought was a closeout. It was so big and clean I rode a log. That was a good choice until I got stuck on the inside and unfortunately denied. That took it all out of me too.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Wabasso lunchtime had long-period characteristics, the waves having more energy than local wind waves of the same size. Got home barely ahead of a shower.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Friday, bigger and better in Satellite. Wowsa. Storms hit around 12:30pm.

4-6 in mel beach this am. Shifty with significant S drift, but scored some absolute bombs. Breaking really slow and ez to get in and down the line before it closed. Fun times

My contribution to the many videos out there.

Nice vid Dave!:

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Time and tide wait for no one.....

Edited: 08/25/2025 at 04:27 AM by KP

More for Saturday...waiting for the tide to drop this morning! Coffee taste great at the moment.

I imagine it's going to be overly crowded today....Thus, here comes the obligatory....SPREAD OUT PEOPLE...

yup, another day, sunday. More surf! Woot!

Sets were still well overhead this morning in northern palm beach county

Ah, the 20 miler is getting skimmed and SFL is getting the goods. There is still size here, but it pretty much sucks unless you have some secret spot.





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I was right.

Edited: 08/24/2025 at 03:50 PM by Cole

Thank!

I got to surf hangars this Monday afternoon. Still long period with some size! Amazing run. 7 days so far. Hoping for 8.

What a great swell bender. I already miss it but thankful for the waves in the back yard!

Edited: 08/26/2025 at 07:11 AM by mp2115

Somebody put another quarter in the swell machine. thnx.

We were told it would be a never ending swell nirvana after the first one.

BOO!



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I was right.

Clean chest high bowls with no one out. I love random swells.

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I was right.

Rode my daughters 7'0 blue soft top with pink wax. I owe her one! lol. "Can I please ride your board"

Early GFS run for Gabrielle shows a brush with Hatteras. Stay tuned.

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Next model run for Gabrielle might send it to Houston. That happened with Erin.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Houston we have a problem! (Tom Hanks)

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway