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Topic Title: Dry season comes early. Topic Summary: Created On: 03/11/2020 08:04 AM |
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- Central Floridave | - 03/11/2020 08:04 AM |
- weldertom2 | - 03/11/2020 08:56 AM |
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- SurferMic | - 05/07/2020 10:45 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/10/2020 05:18 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/27/2020 05:29 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/27/2020 06:56 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/02/2020 08:29 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/05/2020 05:29 AM |
- Plan B | - 06/06/2020 07:43 PM |
- seaspray | - 06/07/2020 11:03 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/08/2020 11:34 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/22/2020 10:51 AM |
- weldertom2 | - 06/24/2020 04:05 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/24/2020 10:39 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 06/24/2020 10:41 AM |
- weldertom2 | - 07/05/2020 04:40 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 07/05/2020 08:08 PM |
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05/27/2020 06:56 AM
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On 2nd named storm of the season, and all before June. Bertha soaked us pretty good and looks to get us again this afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 350 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 .DISCUSSION... Today-Tonight...The surface trough that brought us heavy rain earlier this week is now located just offshore of the northeast Florida peninsula. This puts central Florida on the ascending side of the trough as prevailing southwest flow continues to advect deep moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage along the coast. Rain chances around 40-50 percent across the far inland areas, and 50-60 percent from Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to the east coast. Storms to first develop along the west coast breeze on the western side of the peninsula, pushing east into our area this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze should be pinned mostly along the coast. This is where the main sea breeze collision will occur leading to the development of numerous thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms being deadly cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and torrential downpours. There is a localized flooding threat in Martin County due to heavy rain that recently fell there. Any heavy rainfall could lead to minor flooding of roads, low-lying areas and poor drainage spots. Southwest flow favors hotter than expected temperatures in our area. Highs this afternoon should reach the low 90s across east central Florida. Would not be surprised to see a few spots reach the mid 90s along the coast if the east coast sea breeze remains pinned. Showers and storms linger into the evening hours before pushing offshore and dissipating. A mostly dry and warm night ahead as overnight lows slightly above normal in the low 70s. Thursday-Friday...Thu...A cutoff Low over the ARKLATEX wl open into a wave form and usher out toward the OH valley by Thu night. Favorable moisture in excess of 1.6 inches. Light winds aloft will lead to sct to nmrs slow moving showers and storms. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a concern due to recent rains. A pattern change Fri due to sfc ridge building in from the Wrn Atlc basin and across the peninsula. Light steering winds should focus inland for development of afternoon storms. Expect sct to numerous slow moving storms once again Fri, with slightly higher coverage inland due to expected boundary interactions during the heat of the day. Weekend...Upr troughing across the Appalachians and SE states will amplify swd, leading to weakening high pressure locally. Westerly winds aloft will favor the eastern side of the peninsula for storm movement and development. Coverage of showers and storms wk be slightly higher than normal due to less convective inhibition overall with temperatures near seasonal normal. Rain chances 50 to 70 percent Sat will reduce a little to around 40-50 pct Sunday. Extended...Into next week, GFS guid continues to indicate modest onshore winds from the Atlc with a deepening Caribbean gyre centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall trend to the south, however a wetter pattern is shown south of the area with a Iso-Sct showers in the form of diurnal increases will be a daily local feature with limited temperature ranges due to marine influence. && .AVIATION... Areas of low stratus and shallow ground fog will produce IFR/LIFR conditions across portions of the area this morning before burning off by late morning. Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon with the highest coverage along the coast. TEMPO groups likely to be added for 12Z TAF package at coastal terminals. Storms push offshore and dissipate by this evening with VFR conditions prevailing after. && .MARINE... Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions return to all local waters today as seas diminish further. Southwest winds this morning around 10 knots become south/southeast by this afternoon at 10-15 knots as the sea breeze develops. Seas around 3-4 feet. Numerous thunderstorms will move offshore by mid to late afternoon with the main threats being dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 34 knots. Convection moves offshore and dissipates by this evening, though some showers could linger offshore overnight. Late Week/Weekend...High pressure wl begin to establish from the Wrn Atlc basin toward the Gulf of Mex Thu-Fri. Marine conditions should correspondingly improve, with seas diminishing to around 3 ft Thu. Seas thereafter wl average around 3-4 ft into the weekend due to an expected swell component, with an light onshore wind, increasing in the afternoons due to sea breeze development. Extended...Light to gentle onshore winds early next week with seas around 3 ft Mon, increasing to 4 to 6 ft Tue as onshore winds show an increase in gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 72 90 73 / 60 40 50 20 MCO 91 73 93 73 / 50 20 60 30 MLB 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 50 20 VRB 90 74 88 73 / 60 40 50 20 LEE 90 74 93 74 / 40 10 70 30 SFB 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 30 ORL 91 74 94 74 / 50 20 70 30 FPR 91 72 88 72 / 60 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. |
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Dry season comes early.
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